Before computers became part of the American way of life, there were countless occurrences of embezzlements and frauds done by hand. With the computer mystique now present, there is a strong indication that a day will come in the not-too-distant future when a new, sophisticated style of stealing will begin coming to light. What can we do about it?Dansiger was a real auditor who had seen the tricks of embezzlers, and could also see how to computerize each of the tricks. If students were learning math as a NATURAL TOOL of selling and buying and clerking, math would not be a mystique. = = = = = Another DAO swindle would fail if people had learned the important parts of history. Swindlers have organized a "new city" based on DAO code, and they've already crowdfunded a 40 acre piece of land in Wyoming. The land is barren and useless, just right for a utopian cult with no skills and no chance of success. History is full of utopian projects. The cultists think they're blazing new trails in governance and religion and economics. In reality they're just losing their savings and wasting part of their life. The organizer always absconds with all of the money. The Topolobampo Colony is a perfect example. Kansas Populists, persuaded that they were beating the banks and inventing a new way of life, flocked to Albert Owen's colony in a distant part of Mexico. Nothing happened. Owen got rich. School history could help people to see this type of shit if it focused on scams and bubbles and utopias instead of battles and generals and "constitutions". = = = = = Bitcoin is also venturing into "art", without inventing or creating anything at all. NFTs are collages of real art. I only see one attempt at "creating" art. This NFT mixes the real photos in a pattern that was common in the earliest era of digital graphics around 1962: repetitive sinusoidal doodles. It doesn't even use the power of modern computers, let alone the imagination of a real artist. = = = = = When math is taught as a NATURAL TOOL in the middle of real work, you can't be fooled by cheaters. When you're sewing or cooking or soldering, you use ANALOG measuring tools like cups and tapes and voltmeters. You constantly learn that measurement is ALWAYS APPROXIMATE, and you learn that the results of proportions and formulas can only be applied APPROXIMATELY. Reality itself is infallible. Following math will lead you to cook inedible glop or sew a misfitted shirt or solder a fuse-blowing short. You need to be guided by reality at all times, keeping math down in the role of occasional servant.
Labels: Experiential education, MMT, Real World Math
Labels: Emersonian justice, Real World Math
The other question is, in a universe governed by the same principles of logic, mathematics, physics, and chemistry throughout, it should be possible for intelligent entities to somehow find a way of making contact. The fact that those principles of math and physics can be described abstractly at all seems to show that we do not live in a meaningless universe. Thus, in principle, there is meaning that we — and ET — should be able to find. If extraterrestrial intelligences exist and want to communicate, it will be the same meaning. They won’t have a different “logic” or “mathematics” because they can’t.No, no, no. Logic and math are irrelevant and unnecessary. When we are communicating via radio waves, there is a guaranteed set of commonalities. We don't know anything about the aliens, but we know how their receiver works, and they know how our transmitter works. There are only two basic ways to create and receive electromagnetic waves. Nature does it one way, and human technology does it the other way. Nature alters the static field by moving ions in neurons or tissue. Human tech alters the magnetic field by moving electrons in wires. We know several of Nature's methods. Radio fish simply extend the axons of neurons out of the body in an antenna, with its length tuned to match the impedance of the mud they live in. Flowers transfer ions into petals to send a message to bees, then pull back the ions after the bees have grabbed the pollen. Nature did it WITHOUT USING MATH, and the first humans to send and receive radio were doing it with minimal math. Mostly by trial and error, expanding in directions that seem to work, steering away from directions that don't seem to work. FEEDBACK IS LIFE. So, as I've been saying repeatedly, the communication should be ABOUT the communication. Describe the circuits and antennas in a two-dimensional pattern that can be scanned after the receiving intelligence realizes the scanning freq.
This is how radio hams communicate across cultural barriers, especially when censors are listening. Humor and politics and religion aren't easily understood, and may be deadly. Antenna lengths and circuits can be understood by everyone in the circle.
HOWEVER! Considering that I've been repeating this message for years in the tiny single-culture circle of a few blogs, and nobody has heard it yet, I doubt that we have any chance of communicating to mysterious aliens.
Labels: AI point-missing, infinite STUPID, Real World Math, Trinity House
= = = = =
Reviewing the modes of electrical data storage:
Tape came first, as seen in the picture above. The huge disadvantage of tape is that you can't access any location in the storage quickly. Tape is suitable for reading in a long series of data in a specific order, and then writing out a long series of data in a specific order. It's not suitable for holding the numbers or categories used in actual computation or decision-making.
All calculators have some form of register, an immediately accessible store for a few numbers.
Mechanical calculators, like this one used by IBM field engineers, hold the number as the positions of rotors. More complex cash registers or adding machines had many registers, built like odometers.
Every electronic computer has at least one register formed by flipflops. A flipflop is the electronic equivalent of a snap-switch, with a pair of opposed tubes or transistors. When one tube conducts, it holds the other tube in a nonconducting state. An input to one side switches the pair to the opposite condition. There's no real difference between the tube flipflops in the IBM DCL and the extremely miniaturized transistor flipflops in the latest CPU.
Each flipflop is relatively complex, and requires current to maintain its state. So there's a practical limit to how many registers you can 'afford'.
The first solution to this problem was the magnetic core or matrix memory, which was dynamic in the modern sense.
Each ferrite core was intersected by several wires. Any current passing through any of the wires induced some magnetic field in the core, which would last for a short time before fading. The currents and the cores were designed so that a current pulse on BOTH of the XY wires through this core would leave a magnetic charge large enough to last for a longer time. I show this charge as enlarging the toroid. After the field has been induced, a much smaller pulse in the coinciding pair would be enoough to trigger a pulse in the sense wire, shown wandering around through all the cores. The sense wire is essentially the secondary winding of a transformer, with the coinciding XY wires as the primary.
That's how you'd write and read a binary ONE in this particular spot of the matrix. Writing a ZERO was the same thing with reversed polarity. Here I show the opposite induced field as shrinking the core. The sense wire would give an opposite pulse of voltage when the small read pulses coincided.
Core memory was highly dynamic, so it also needed a complex set of refresh pulses to keep it up.
= = = = =
The DCL wasn't the first to use a drum for a multiple register, but again it became the most famous. I remember seeing the DCL in a college Fortran class in 1967. The instructor showed us all the parts of the computer, and opened up the attic of the DCL to show the drum.
In essence the drum is just a very short multi-track tape loop. Instead of a long and narrow tape, it's a short and wide tape wrapped into cylindrical form. Each track holds about 50 numbers, repeating over and over.
Each of the V-shaped troughs around the half-cylinder holds a long horizontal series of read-write heads. I'm showing (abstractly) how each head was activated for part of a revolution to access one track of the 'tape'. This activation wouldn't be visible in real life.
The drum itself isn't visible; it's rotating inside the half-cylinder of heads. The drum held about the same amount of information as a core matrix, but it was non-dynamic. A track once written would stay there without any use of energy or refreshing, and it could be read or rewritten almost instantly.
The 305 RAMAC switched to multiple disks, and we're still there 65 years later. Same principle as the drum, with tracks in three dimensions instead of two.
= = = = =
Why am I calling it the DCL? Because it used Roman numbers. The lights on the front showed the contents of individual flip-flop registers. The knobs and buttons on the front selected which register you were seeing.
The top section was one 10-digit number, with a sign light on the right. Each column was like an abacus. The upper pair was First Five / Second Five. The lower lights were 0 through 4 added onto the upper pair.
The lower part of the front panel was devoted to functions. The left two columns were the opcode of the currently executing command, and the next four were the address of the current command. The lower right lights indicated what was happening now, as in calculating or reading from drum or reading from the external tape.
Here I'm showing opcode 12 and address 3456.
= = = = =
Listing related links so far:
Computers are always sorters.
Parallel is always faster.
Timelines and rentalizing
Just before the NSA web
When analog fertilized digital
Time was a whole bunch of money!
IBM had Pascal in 1957!
The 305 RAMAC
McBee cards
Not medieval enough
IBM DCL [650]
And finally, the Poser models are here on ShareCG.
Labels: Equipoise, Real World Math
Radulfus filius Bernardi reddit Compotum de cc.li. numero de firma de Lancastra. In thesauro c. et l.li. et xv.s. et vij.d. Et in terris datis Willelmo de Valeines x.li. numero in Culfho. Et Willelmo filio Walkelini ix.li. in Stainesbeia. Et Nigello de Greselea iiij.li. et xvj.s. in Drakelawa. Et Engelrano Portario et Rogero de Sancto Albino xx.li. numero in Crokeston. Et Warino Venatori xxv.s. et j.d. de liberatione sua per breve Regis. Et Jacobo 1.s. et j.d. de liberatione sua per idem breve. Et Gibbe xxvj.s. et iij.ob. de liberatione sua per idem breve. Et Petro Bernardi vij.s. et ij.d. de liberatione sua per idem breve. Idem Radulfus r.c. de vj.li. de Cremento de Presteton. Et de vj.s. de firma de Mareton hoc anno. In th'ro lib. in ij. tallis.I get the sense that Radulf was an utgota. Other documents in the same set include AngloSaxon thorn þ, eth ð, and wynn ƿ along with the regular Latin. Scribes, like later typesetters, were flexible and adaptable. The maker of this font doesn't give the scribes enough credit. Rewriting this using the Teresa font, the Ks and Ws are obviously wrong:
Here Polistra and Happystar are printing out the medieval document on a 'medieval' computer.
Why medieval? Because the IBM 650 on the right used the Roman system instead of decimal or binary. I'll feature the 650 in the next IBM item....Labels: 2000=1000, Real World Math
Vakoch is planning on sending messages containing references to the periodic table. The idea being that certain elements, such as hydrogen, are abundant across the Universe so any receiving civilisation is likely to recognise a reference to the chemical signature of those elements. Another important requirement is making sure that whoever is on the receiving end of the message knows what they’re tuning into, says Jacob Haqq-Misra, a researcher at the Blue Marble Space Institute of Science. “The basic idea is to define some sort of mathematical language,” he says. Initial messages might establish some basics. One is not equal to zero, but one is equal to one, for example. “And now we've established a common language, we can talk about physics with each other.”No, no, no. Your "basics" are NOT the basics of math. Axioms and definitions are the fake "foundation" stuffed under the REAL structure of math by Peano and Hilbert and Godel. Why should we talk about physics? Real humans don't talk about physics.
One good idea: Do what hams do. Talk about antennas and transmitters and receivers and propagation. In other words, talk about the process of communicating.
A better idea: Talk in parallel instead of serial. Talk the way we talk. Send harmonies on many frequencies at once, so the receiving party could build a 3d object from the spectrogram.
The best idea: Shut up. First listen to the universe itself, instead of searching for a cult leader who is Just Like Me But Cooler. Figure out what the universe has in mind for us and for me.
This was the purpose of astronomy from Plato through the Arabs and Persians to Brahe and Kepler. After Kepler we stopped listening to the universe and started listening to cult leaders who spoke in the name of Science.
= = = = =
Later and more random thoughts:
Discussion of aliens is packed full of CASTE. The trite old cartoons featured an alien who looks like a vacuum cleaner approaching an Earthly vacuum cleaner and saying "Take me to your leader." He wasn't saying "Tell me about your life and your place."
The people who wish for aliens are high-caste Courtiers, the same type who wish to be leaders. Courtiers dress like leaders (including ballgags), drive the right cars and eat the right foods and medicines as recommended by leaders. They don't realize the leaders don't actually wear or eat or drive or inject any of those recommendations. It's a cargo cult.
BUT: The people who report actual contacts with aliens are pure 100% Deplorables. White Christians in Dixie, the lowest caste of all, the caste every leader and influencer wants to EXTERMINATE, but only Lincoln actually accomplished the task.
Conclusion: If the aliens are really landing and contacting us, they're good scientists following Carver's rules. They realize that Deplorables are sane. They want to interrogate sane realistic people instead of wacked-out cargo cultists. A vacuum cleaner can tell you more about the house than the owner can.Labels: AI point-missing, Carver, Real World Math
and Varityper.
These instructions are hugely complex and detailed, but everything is in normal English, so you can read it unambiguously.
When mathematicians wrote manuals, they continued their blackboard habits of mixing Greek and Hebrew and Roman and Fraktur and made-up symbols, scrawled loosely and sloppily.
From a MANIAC III manual written at Univ of Chicago in 1962:
Can you tell the difference between the alpha and gamma? And what is that symbol for Tag? Is that a tau or a iota with an acute accent over it?
Note the beta superscripted by a capital R which is subscripted by 11, or is it [1 sub 1] or [1 in the first category and 1 in the second category]? No, it's not any of those things. It's the fucking RIGHT QUOTATION MARK for the sentence.
More to the point, they had just defined specific WORDS for their concepts. Operation, tag, information, left designator, right inflector. THEY DIDN'T NEED THE GREEK. The entire discussion would have been clearer using the ACTUAL FUCKING WORDS.
Do an Operation, in a manner specified by the left and right Inflectors, on information designated by left Designators and modified by left Modifiers; and on information designated by right Designators and modified by right Modifiers.
Even when they accidentally used only Roman letters, the blackboard habit of supersubsuperscripting continued.
The limited character set on keypunch keyboards FORCED programmers to talk English.
No Greek, no math symbols, no subs and supers. Just uppercase Roman, numbers, and a few bookkeeping symbols like dollars and percent. COBOL was written on and for keypunches, and it originally had no symbols at all.
DIVIDE NUMA BY NUMB GIVING RES-DIV.
Naming variables in English was the biggest contribution of programming.
Later keyboards and languages made longer names possible, and introduced more symbols, but never dropped to the level of mathematicians.
Those academics at Chicago had been using computers and keypunches for several years, and still hadn't learned English. Modern mathematicians still insist on a tangled jumble of Greek, Hebrew, supersubsupersubscripts, and an occasional SINGLE letter of English. Never never never allow a word to contaminate the purity of obfuscation.Labels: Real World Math, storage
Labels: Experiential education, Real World Math
Labels: Carbon Cult, Metrology, Real World Math
Real value varies linearly with heft, up to an asymptotic limit where the heft becomes impractical for its purpose. Tanh as always.
Asshole value is the reciprocal of real value. As real heft goes to zero, asshole value increases (as always) exponentially.
Labels: Real World Math, storage
Most scientists have, quite literally, zero reason to care. Physics, chemistry and biology are not threatened by the challenges of proving statements about infinite domains using consistent, recursive axiom systems. Many mathematicians (good or bad) don’t care either, and those who do are perfectly okay with it. Failing to “be okay with it” is, in fact, one of the telltale signals of not being a mathematician.
Labels: Real World Math
Since apartheid ended in 1994, South Africa’s universities have struggled to transform themselves, leading to escalating student protests over the last three years — including the toppling of a prominent statue of Cecil Rhodes, an infamous colonizer who donated the land on which the University of Cape Town now stands. And as students and academics accelerate the process of decolonization across South African universities, the spotlight has fallen onto mathematics. Exactly what decolonizing math would entail isn’t entirely clear: Curriculum revisions that promote non-Western contributions to the field, new teaching methods rooted in indigenous cultures, and greater openness to ideas outside the academic mainstream are all under discussion. Some want to go further, challenging the philosophical foundations** of mathematics itself.Sounds like the usual SJW crap. But the actual leader of the movement is onto something entirely different and hugely more important.
In his evening classes, meanwhile, Chinyoka hopes to broaden students’ understanding of what they can do with the mathematics they are presented with in lectures — from engineering to academia to law. He believes that South African mathematics should be reframed around the challenges faced by South Africa, as well as other developing countries.In fact Chinyoka is not going far enough in the correct direction. He's treating the real life problems as a supplement after the theory. This is somewhat better than the normal math class which PROHIBITS any mention of the real world. The CORRECT method is to train students in real job-related or household-related solving, and let math come in naturally as a supplement. You're starting to cook a meal for your family. You set out the pans and read the recipe. The recipe is for 4 people but your family is 6 people. Now we have a problem that needs to be solved, and math provides a way to solve it.
After you solve the problem, you can eat the solution.
Back to Chinyoka:
“We still have this more Westernized view: You sit in a mathematics class on topology or abstract algebra, with zero idea about which context it applies to,” he says. Pointing to the current water and energy crises in South Africa, he argues that math should be taught with concrete applications in mind, rather than purely theoretically, which is a luxury afforded only by the West.Not really a Westernized view, more precisely a Krautized view. Before we surrendered to the Krauts, US math and science teaching often had "concrete applications in mind". Around 1910 we went full Kraut. Theory in the morning, theory in the evening, theory at suppertime, concrete applications verboten all the time. Soviet math and science teaching recovered from Krautism, focusing PROPERLY on real-life problem solving. That's why they beat us with Sputnik. As always we learned backwards. Fucking idiots. Chinyoka is on the right track. His approach is better for ALL kids except autists and Krautists. Western math is SOLELY for autists and Krautists. The EXPLICITLY STATED PURPOSE of math class in elementary and secondary school is to FRUSTRATE AND REPEL non-autists, so only the most precise and bizarre and reality-free wackos will end up with PhDs. Unfortunately the movement toward USEFUL APPLICATIONS is confused and conflated with silly DieVersitarian nonsense. Many of the participants are more concerned with measuring Identity than measuring rice yield or baking temperatures or generator output. They are simply replacing one set of useless theories with another set of useless theories. = = = = = ** Footnote: there's no point in challenging the philosophical foundations of math because they don't exist. A real foundation goes in FIRST, and the rest of the building depends on the strength of the foundation. Math developed in all sorts of useful and interesting directions for 5000 years WITHOUT explicit foundations. Around 1880 the Kraut fetish for thoroughness demanded a "logical" foundation, and Krauts shoved in some logic stuff under the massive structure that obviously didn't need the logic stuff. Soon thereafter, a Kraut named Gödel detemined, using the rules of the Kraut logic stuff, that the logic stuff was internally contradictory and thus pointless. So: If you believe that math has philosophical foundations, you must also believe that math can't have philosophical foundations. If you find math to be a wonderfully useful tool for real life problems, you don't need to think about the foundation question. Just use math. = = = = = END REPRINT. I can't immediately find any more recent writings by Tiri Chinyoka, except for an applied math research paper that isn't about education.
Labels: Carver, Experiential education, Real World Math
Labels: Constants and Variables, Equipoise, Real World Math
Basically a regular Pickett in a motorized platform. The buttons around the top were little slide levers controlling various actions. One of them was labeled 'Noise', which introduced jitter into the actions.
I suspect this was a solidified version of the Lukyanov water computer. I wrote a PY to run the Lukyanov, including the ability to add noise. Jitterizing would be a worthy feature in a real** analog computer.
A power drive would actually work better with a BIG circular rule like the Norma Grafia. You wouldn't have to reverse at the ends. For instance, you could set C and D to a proportion, then run the cursor slowly around the circle to see all the similar proportions.
The shape of the platform is tanh. Was that an intentional choice by the dream scripter? A way of saying that we need an analog computer focused on Nature's way of doing things? The curve was important in the dream, and the control levers pivoted around the curve. Probably not intentional, but it's still a good piece of advice. More likely the dream scripter was just copying the VW tool pictured in previous item.... or the iconic shape of the '61 Lincoln that was the main subject of previous item. All tanh.
= = = = =
** Was this feature tried? A quick google finds the vast majority of computers, both analog and digital, were concerned with avoiding or smoothing out the phase and amplitude jitter in real signals. Only one analog computer was trying to do the opposite. ASTRAC was a true analog computer with digital counting and control systems attached. Some of its analog modules intentionally introduced randomness and Zener noise. The developers were apparently using the random for 'Monte Carlo' simulations with repeated analog functions feeding a digital program. I'm thinking more of dynamic stability, wiggling into a negative feedback loop to reach the optimum quickly. Simulating the action of a gamma muscle loop, for instance.Labels: Alternate universe, Morsenet of Things, Real World Math
Labels: Equipoise, Patient things, Real World Math, Trinity House
Labels: Equipoise, Real World Math
This is a mechanical balance or bridge providing a scaled-down version of a real multi-dimensional balance, the weights in various parts of the plane pulling against the center of gravity. It automatically computes the vector sum of the torques in foot-pounds. The feet part is constant, set by the length of the arm, and the pounds part is variable, set by the rack-and-pinion knobs.
Early passenger planes were highly sensitive to loading patterns. Airlines in those days knew the weight of every passenger and luggage item because they weighed everyone. With this gadget, the loading agent could try out the weight in each row and tank and compartment as he processed them, simply by setting the dials for each. The net balance would immediately show on the dial, so he could move a heavy passenger from row 4 to row 1 before really loading the plane.
I'm sure digital computers in the '60s could calculate the result, but there wasn't a way to instantly input each estimate and read the result until the '90s.
This mechanism isn't really an analog, it's just a scale model of the aircraft. A literal computer!Labels: Equipoise, Real World Math
If we ever establish contact with intelligent aliens living on a planet around a distant star, we would expect some problems communicating with them. As we are many light years away, our signals would take many years to reach them, so there would be no scope for snappy repartee. There could be an IQ gap and the aliens might be built from quite different chemistry. Yet there would be much common ground too. They would be made of similar atoms to us. They could trace their origins back to the big bang 13.7 billion years ago, and they would share with us the universe's future. However, the surest common culture would be mathematics.The article goes on to discuss which formulas and theories would be good candidates for interplanetary chit-chat.
Polistra begs to differ. The supposed "universality" of math is a myth.
Our new Facebook Friends on Alpha Centauri could have the technology to text us, while knowing very little math. Let's look at the start of electrical communication on Earth. Sam Morse was an artist, not a mathematician, and his telegraph was built by trial and error. Alex Bell was a speech teacher with a deep visual comprehension of wave action. Early radio sets (spark-gap transmitters, cat-whisker detectors) were also built without fancy math, though a certain amount of measurement was important for meaningful testing.
You need a way of remembering size and comparing this size with that size. When testing antennas, you'd need to see that a longer antenna worked better than a shorter antenna, and you'd need to know when the lengthening stopped improving the performance and started making it worse. In other words, you need GRAPHS, or the mental equivalent of GRAPHS.
Even without trying to imagine an alien mind, it's easy to see how we Earthlings could have developed a communication system able to reach distant planets, all without any math beyond measurement.
= = = = = END (modified) REPRINT.
If we look at human history, societies that developed PROBLEM-SOLVING technologies like dams and aqueducts and plows didn't die suddenly. They weren't killed BY the dams and aqueducts and plows. Sometimes they were conquered by enemies (eg Mayans), sometimes they lost their technological edge but continued functioning (eg Persia).
Societies that focused on THEORY were killed directly by the THEORY.
We can see the distinction RIGHT FUCKING NOW in the realm of medicine.
Vaccination was developed WITHOUT THEORY 500 years ago by the Circassians. It was brought to England and "reinvented" 200 years ago. Since then, vaccines for many different diseases have been developed by continual refinement of techniques and constant endless TRIAL AND ERROR. NEGATIVE FEEDBACK. The ERROR part is crucial. Before 2020, clinical trials were HALTED when too much ERROR appeared. None of this development used or needed any theories, except the OBSERVATION that the immune system can be trained to reject a disease by seeing a preview of the disease.
In 2020 we explicitly DELETED the entire concept of immunity. Public Death Officers still understand that it exists, but they use their understanding to ELIMINATE immunity, not to BOOST it. Now clinical trials are conducted to improve genocide, not to improve health.
Now we're operating on a magnificently maniacal THEORY that disease is caused by heretical beliefs. We still use the word "virus", but what we mean by "virus" is witch powder, not a microscopic package of RNA.
We are committing FAST suicide. Or more precisely, Deepstate and its branches are MURDERING us faster than ever before.
EXPERIENCE SURVIVES. THEORY KILLS.Labels: Constants and Variables, Jackboot stomping forever, Real World Math
IDENTIFICATION DIVISION.
PROGRAM-ID. EGGS.
DATA DIVISION.
WORKING-STORAGE SECTION.
01 CARTON.
05 EGG OCCURS 12 TIMES.
10 YOLK PIC 9 VALUE 1.
10 ALBUMEN PIC 9 VALUE 1.
10 SHELLCOLOR PIC XXXXXXXX VALUE "WHITE".
PROCEDURE DIVISION.
MOVE 2 TO YOLK (2).
DISPLAY EGG (1).
DISPLAY EGG (2).
STOP RUN.
The carton is just a carton. The things IN it are eggs, and we make room for 12 of them. Each egg has measurable things or qualities IN the egg, which also have their own names. I decided to use the number of Yolks (normally 1 but could be 2) and the number of Albumens (always 1) and the color of the shell. I made Egg 2 a double-yolk egg.
The DISPLAY lines tell the computer to display the contents or qualities of Egg number 1 and Egg number 2.
The PIC stuff is non-intuitive but necessary in a strongly column-oriented system like a ledger or a computer memory. PIC is a 'picture' of the columns or memory cells needed for this particular value. 9 represents any digit, and X represents an alphanumeric character. PIC 99.99 would mean a dollars and cents number like 24.36 with no overflow allowed.Labels: Bemusement, Real World Math
I spent the next several months developing mathematical models of the spread of infection, and applying them to official health statistics, which were provided under free subscription by the Centers for Disease Control in their Weekly Surveillance Report. And, like anyone who has worked with epidemiological models during an emerging infection, I came to understand that early-stage projections are not neutral; they have an intrinsic and marked tendency towards exaggeration of whatever threat they’re applied to. The reason is that with any new health condition, early infections and deaths naturally occur among the most susceptible parts of the population. With AIDS, there were clearly-defined and relatively small groups of people who were at very high risk, and almost all of the early cases were among members of those groups. As the disease spread to the much larger lower-risk parts of the population, overall rates of infection and death fell significantly. When unrepresentative infection and death rates derived from early data are projected into the far future their effects are greatly amplified, just as a rifle fired at a distant target will turn a tiny error in aim into a miss by miles. And once the projected rates have been translated into numbers of deaths for a population of millions we end up with apocalyptic forecasts that can’t help but induce panic. Many scientists spend their careers searching for eye-catching results, and it must be extremely difficult to choose to tone down the few that do occur, especially when they apply to a novel and high-profile disease. The temptation to believe you’ve discovered a genuinely awful and important truth is a powerful one. The Royal College of Nursing certainly couldn’t resist: in 1985, they predicted that one million people in Britain would have AIDS within six years. But by 1990, the cumulative total was less than 5,000.In both cases the insurers knew that the EXPONENTIAL projections were wrong and destructive, but they didn't step up to resist. ANY TIME YOU HEAR AN EXPERT CLAIMING THAT A NATURAL PHENOMENON IS EXPONENTIAL, YOU KNOW INSTANTLY AND PERFECTLY AND TAUTOLOGOUSLY THAT THE CLAIM IS WRONG AND THE EXPERT IS A MURDEROUS CRIMINAL. NATURE IS NOT CAPABLE OF DOING EXPONENTIALS. Silence can't be good for profits. In 1980, and even more now after Romneycare, insurers are the main payers for medical care. When projections are wrong, insurers will spend more for unneeded tests and appointments for people who really didn't need to worry. And in the current holocaust insurers will end up spending HUGELY more for serious cancer treatment, which would have been cheaper if caught early. I'm glad THIS actuary (RETIRED) chose to use his SKILL to clarify the situation. But the question remains: Why didn't the insurance companies speak out IMMEDIATELY at the time when their authority and lobbying could have made a difference? They could have saved a whole lot of expense for themselves, and could have saved MILLIONS of lives in the current holocaust. For insurers, profit and saving lives are PARALLEL goals. In earlier decades insurers often lobbied for regulations to improve safety and health. Home and business insurers have always helped customers avoid theft and fire and other hazards. Auto safety regulations were started by an insurance-financed research project in 1956. Fuckhead Nader managed to put his brand on the project for self-aggrandizement, but it was really a cooperative effort by insurers and universities.
Labels: Leth, Real World Math
The current icon shows Polistra using a Personal Equation Machine.