Point of diminishing Eyman
Tim Eyman has been generating referenda here in Wash for a long time. A few of his measures have made good sense, but like any other NGO or agency, he keeps running and running after the ideas and missions are gone.

Now he's passed the point of negative return. One of his earlier referenda will end up ruining all future referenda.

There are no high-powered campaigns for or against the nonbinding Advisory Votes 3 through 7. No statements pro or con in the state Voters’ Pamphlet. No websites with videos or lists of endorsers.

Tim Eyman, whose 2007 initiative set up the process of giving voters a chance to express an opinion on taxes the Legislature approves, said the measures give voters quick information on what taxes were raised, how much they cost and which legislators voted for or against.

The measures – costing an estimated $240,000 for the printing of extra pages in this year’s Voters’ Pamphlet – are an inexpensive way to provide legislators with public feedback, he said.

Wrong. Lack of information outside the ballot isn't the problem. Too much meaningless information on the face of the ballot is the problem. This year's ballot was 1/3 candidates, 1/3 real referenda and 1/3 "advisory votes". The substantial referenda, including an important one on labeling GMO foods, are diminished and devalued by these empty-calorie snack votes that have zero effect.

I'm generally well informed and a careful reader. I pay no attention to candidates because they are meaningless. I do try to vote thoughtfully on referenda, because some of them can make a real and permanent change. This time it was difficult to separate the real refs from the fake "advisory" thingamajigs. Presumably a less careful reader will have even more trouble sifting out the important bits.
  ¶ 2:41 AM

  Post-glasnostial Rebound
While US and UK subside deeper and deeper into unnameable levels of hyperhyperhyperhyperinsanity where no logic, no justice, no truth, no facts are remotely imaginable, Russia continues to pop up into the blue sky of plain facts and plain logic.

Piracy charges brought against 30 Greenpeace activists, including an Australian man, being detained in a Russian prison have not been dropped despite pledges to downgrade them to hooliganism, Greenpeace says.

But Greenpeace spokesman Reece Turner says the activists appeared before the committee this week and the piracy charges remain.

Greenpeace says the piracy charge was "not withdrawn", but "instead each of them was simply served with the additional charge of hooliganism".

HA HA HA HA HA HA HA!

You been SERVED, assholes.


  ¶ 2:03 AM

  Nature will take its course
The city courts have accepted a guilty plea from the lawyers of a subhuman entity named Avondre Graham. Last year Entity Graham laid in wait and killed a middle-aged woman who was out jogging. A few months later it tried to kill a second middle-aged woman who was out jogging. In that case a heroic man stopped the Entity before it could complete the kill, and the city (which had already identified the Entity as responsible for the first murder) was reluctantly forced to arrest the Entity.

Normally I'd join the outrage at the short 10-year sentence, but in this case I understand the constraints of the nonfunctional court system and I trust Nature to be functional.

First, a full trial would cost a huge amount of money with no meaningful result.

Second, a death penalty trial wouldn't work because Entity Graham is not human and does not have an IQ. Aside from newer illegitimate "rulings" on the subject of IQ, this Thing would fit strictly into the oldest rules of competence. The M'Naghten Rule was designed specifically for decerebrate entities like this, not for clever psychopaths and sociopaths. Entity Graham does not have a mind or a moral code. Killing it would be the correct course, but there's no way the court system can do anything remotely approaching correct.

Third, Entity Graham is black, so a full trial would bring in Satan Sharpton and Satan Jackson and all their Satanic media circus hangers-on. The city would never be the same. The iron hand of Satan would be fully and severely and harshly in charge of all aspects of the government and culture forever. CNN would create a massive new network to watch every citizen of Spokane 24/7 and report our "racist" breathing and "racist" eating and "racist" sleeping habits.

Fourth, I understand how things work in jail, and I'm pretty sure Nature will do the job that the court system can't do. Entity Graham will not understand the written and unwritten rules in the walls. Because it kills whatever it's pointed at, smart prisoners will use it as a weapon. Result: death or permanent storage. Either way, it will not return to the streets.
  ¶ 5:50 PM

  Two small victories
The basic structure of federalism gained two small and temporary victories yesterday.

(1) A fed appeals court countermanded a lower fed Satan who had pre-emptively halted the new Texas abortion law. Appeals court says the law can take effect pending Satan's usual smashing. This means that many abortuaries will have to close today, making it harder for Satan to bring baby-murder back to its previous numbers. (A closed business of any sort is hard to restore.)

(2) Similar pattern. A lower Satan put a halt to NYC's stop and frisk policy, which is the cornerstone of a low-crime city. Again an appeals court removed the halt. This one went further, disqualifying Lower Satan Shira Scheindlin from further action on the case.

Satan will win in both locations sooner or later, but it's always good to see one or two federal employees who have the guts to oppose Satan for a moment.
  ¶ 3:44 AM

  Paging Dr Percy 2
When I wrote this earlier today ...

Every electron, photon, wave and molecule that moves information from one place to another is susceptible to NSA.

... I was thinking about air molecules moving as part of a sound wave, since NSA uses IR laser reflections to detect the sound from conversations inside a building.

I was NOT thinking about this type of molecule and this type of movement....

Israel has so far identified 42 people shedding poliovirus in their faeces. ... Israel’s effective sewage-surveillance systems were able to detect the virus before any clinical cases occurred, but in Europe, only a handful of countries monitor sewage.

No, this is not from TheOnion, and it's not from Spotlight or Stormfront. It's from Nature, and I have no reason to doubt it. Sounds like EU and NSA are falling behind and need to get their respective asses, or ass-surveillance systems, in gear. Israel beats the pants off everyone else in advanced tyranny. As usual.

Dead serious: This is an evil landmark. Western governments passed beyond the imaginings of 'political paranoia' at least 25 years ago. No matter how hard you try to develop a semi-rational conspiracy theory, you'll quickly find that reality is vastly worse than you imagined. This development has finally passed beyond the imaginings of true schizophrenics. If you walked around saying "The Jews are capturing and analyzing my poop", you'd be slammed in the nuthouse. But you'd be right.
  ¶ 5:58 PM

  See what happens when you LISTEN?
This is hugely interesting!!

Ashlee Lillis, an NC State Ph.D. candidate in marine sciences, wondered how the tiny oysters knew when to drop down and start looking for a home. Scientists know that larval oysters and other bivalves, like clams, respond to some chemical and physical signals in seawater, but Lillis wondered if the sound of the reef played a role.

“When you’re as small as these larvae, even if you’re only 10 or 15 feet up in a water column you wouldn’t have any real sense of where you were in terms of the seafloor beneath you,” Lillis says. “But an ocean reef has very loud, distinct sounds associated with it. They’re noisy enough to be heard by scuba divers and snorkelers. Even though oysters don’t have ears and hear like we do, they might be able to sense the vibration from the sounds of the reef.”

...The team first made underwater sound recordings of oyster reefs and the open seafloor. Then they tested larval oysters in the wild and in the lab to determine if the settlement rates increased when they were exposed to reef sounds versus those from further out. The team found an increased settlement rate in both the lab and the wild when the larvae were exposed to reef sounds.

Molluscs are extremely strong in the vision department; cephalopod eyes and visual processing systems are at least as good as mammalian. But they don't have anything like ears, and until now there's been no indication that they take any sort of auditory input. The fact that oyster larvae prefer a recording of the "right" sound to other recordings shows that they're not just picking up crude amplitude of vibration; they must be hearing in some fairly sophisticated way and processing the vibrations.

Grand blueprint time! Genes determine goals, not structures. It's already clear that vision is one of the universal purposes; now hearing moves closer to universality.

Labels: Grand Blueprint

  ¶ 12:14 PM

  Expensive and unusable
Local radio mentioned that the 'Montlake Spite House' in Seattle is for sale at about $400k. I hadn't heard of it, so looked it up. Turns out to be only one example of a rare but geographically widespread species.

Most spite houses are built when Landowner A refuses to buy a small strip of land held by Landowner B. Landowner B then puts up an expensive and unusable building that blocks the frontage or view of Landowner A. The Montlake Spite House is atypical: skinny at one end but wide at the other, and clearly meant to be livable. More likely whimsical than spiteful.

At the same time I happened to be reading a Collectible Automobile article on DeSoto, which was probably a Spite Car. By the usual story, Walter Chrysler was trying to get Dillon Read to sell him the Dodge Brothers company. He created two new brands calculated to bracket the Dodge price range, Plymouth just below and DeSoto just above. Dillon Read saw the threat and sold out.

Spite Houses and Spite Cars are fairly rare, but Spite Laws are universal. The Fed gov't functions on pure spite. Omnibus bills and poison pills are the opposite of old-fashioned logrolling. Under logrolling, you get your milk subsidy and I get my bridge. Under spiterolling, you can't have your milk subsidy and I can't have my bridge. Occasionally one of these blocking devices accidentally pops out of Congress like a parasite wasp popping out of an unfortunate cicada, and we get a Spite Law.

I've been trying to make sense of Romneycare. It doesn't make sense as a left-wing effort to help the poor, and it doesn't make sense as a right-wing attempt to help the rich. Neither faction wanted it. It only makes sense as a Spite Law built by Joe Lieberman. Somebody dared to oppose him, so the parasite wasp pops out of Congress and eats the country.
  ¶ 8:24 AM

  Wrong question
As the histrionics about NSA spying continue, the important question remains untouched.

Tech types have been aware for decades that NSA monitors everything. Everything means everything. Every fucking thing. Not everything legally permissible. Don't be silly. NSA doesn't use laws. Just everything.

Every electron, photon, wave and molecule that moves information from one place to another is susceptible to NSA. They may not succeed in catching everything, and they don't have the time or manpower to decipher or analyze everything, but they are making a thorough and exhaustive effort to catch everything.

This is parallel to the idiocy surrounding human genetics. We have an endless series of "studies" claiming to indicate that some particular skill or tendency is innate or learned. None of these "studies" are needed, and most are flat wrong. The separated twins studies back in the '50s already gave us all the info we need. Every human taste, talent and tendency is partly innate. Every single one, from strong legs to weak math skills to preferring red-haired females with slightly crossed eyes to hating clocks that represent 4 as IIII instead of IV. No need to "study" tiny pieces of a broad and simple fact that has already been determined.

In both cases the MEANINGFUL question is elsewhere.

With genetics, the MEANINGFUL question is how we USE these tastes and talents to maintain a strong civilization. We can deal with destructive tendencies or deficient skills more effectively and efficiently if we understand DEEPLY AND FIRMLY that they are mainly innate. We shouldn't waste time on "education" that can't possibly educate. We shouldn't waste time on "punishment" that can't possibly punish.

With spying, the MEANINGFUL question is how government USES its unlimited knowledge. Does it use the information to catch terrorists? No. Does it use the information to help citizens? No. (Quick example: the Romneycare website wouldn't have any problems if it could pick up the NSA's data stream. You wouldn't need to enter any facts about your life or health or income.) Does it use the information to assist local police in catching criminals? Obviously not. Local police are still on their own.

Strikes me that we can learn from the old video of a Brazilian pianist that UK Telegraph has been mysteriously presenting this week. After realizing that the orchestra is not playing the same concerto she had prepared to play, she goes through all sorts of dramatics and hysterics..... then at the moment where the piano enters, her HANDS know exactly what to do. Her HANDS hit the keyboard and proceed through a flawless performance because her HANDS were not participating in the weeping and gnashing of teeth.



Stop the histrionics. Don't worry about facts and epistemology. Just let your HANDS do what they're ready to do. You might be surprised.

Labels: epistemology, Experiential education

  ¶ 3:45 AM

  Unique and positive
Looks like the Repooflicans are finally starting** to notice the real problems with Romneycare. They're picking up the situation AFTER all major news media have already hit the story accurately and severely. CBS, NBC, even the New York Times!!!!! have soundly whipped the administration.

This is unique in two ways.

First the obvious violation of Team Spirit. When those D-team media attack a D-team president, it's serious.

Second, I can't remember a previous instance when Satan's media agreed precisely with my own experience. As an old white male with frugal habits, I'm way outside their target demo. I don't borrow, gamble, drive, fly, watch TV, or use a cellphone. Thus very few "news" stories even touch my life. When a story does intersect my experience, it's either ancient news (like the Snowden NSA "revelations") or absurdly wrong (all "science" stories.)


**Note on Finally Starting: At least the Rs in Congress are hitting the subject delicately and cautiously. However, the local and state Repoofs still haven't caught on. I got an email from the state Rs this morning with subject line "A salute to Republican women", and snail mail from them on ZERO TAXES as tiresomely usual. A state legislator hosted a talk show today, concentrating solely on the website glitches. Not very convincing. I have to conclude that the professional Rs are completely disconnected from the self-employed constituency, and can't hear or empathize with our problems. Why? Because the professional Rs all WORK FOR THE FUCKING GOVERNMENT, that's why.
  ¶ 7:03 AM

  Chuckie chimes in
Well, Chuckie the Microwit has thrown a frustrating mixture of common sense and Gaian wackism.

Wackism:

The Prince of Wales used his keynote speech at the 9th World Islamic Economic Forum in London this evening to warn of the political and economic dangers of climate change...

"The tragic conflict in Syria provides a terrifyingly graphic example, where a severe drought for the last seven years has decimated Syria's rural economy. Driving many farmers off their fields and into cities where, already, food was in short supply.

Hey microwit! Ever hear of Seven Lean Years and Seven Fat Years? Those folks HAVE heard of it, and they're accustomed to living it. They've been thinking about it and writing about it since 2800 fucking BC. Britain doesn't know about drought cycles because it's always more or less rainy, and of course Chuckie's Gaian faith declares that all knowledge of natural CYCLES is deadly heresy. For a Gaian, AND for a Goldman-style capitalist, everything is unidirectional and exponential, everything moves inexorably toward infinity or zero.


Common sense:

"This depletion of natural capital, inexplicably, little reported in the media, was a significant contributor to the social tension that exploded with such desperate results."

He said Islamic banking, or alternative banking, could provide the answers where conventional banking could not, given Islam's emphasis on the "moral economy".

Exactly right.

Note, however, that Chuckie focuses on NATURAL CAPITAL and omits HUMAN CAPITAL, which is THE big problem in Britain and America. Our capitalists have turned exclusively to manipulating currency and pure numbers, and have completely lost the human part of the picture. Our businesses have returned to plain old slavery, with the slaves conveniently placed in China and Bangladesh. Islamic economics focuses powerfully on human labor as the creator of value. That's the whole point of prohibiting interest: to insure that return on an investment is solely based on real value.

Labels: Carbon Cult, Natural law = Sharia law

  ¶ 3:25 AM

  Now squeeze.
Interesting move by British treasury:

Britain is set to become the first non-Muslim country to sell a bond that can be bought by Islamic investors in a bid to encourage massive new investment into the City. David Cameron will say in a speech on Tuesday at the World Islamic Economic Forum in London that the Treasury is drawing up plans to issue a £200m Sukuk, a form of debt that complies with Islamic financial law. The new sharia-compliant gilt will enable Britain to become the first non-Muslim country to tap the growing pool of Islamic investments that is forecast to top £1.3 trillion by next year.

(1) Tapping new investors is only a small part of the advantage. The big part is the plain fact that Islamic economics works, while the US/UK/EU Goldman System fails. (Of course Goldman economics succeeds magnificently for Goldman. The parasite destroys the host country to enrich itself.)

(2) When you disconnect the bond's return from LIBOR and those other Goldman-invented measurements and derivatives and options and futures and indexes and puts and calls, you also disconnect the power of Goldman. LIBOR was invented solely to provide a single control knob for the entire banking system, a knob that Goldman turns.

(3) When you treat government more like a business with the goal of producing a natural profit, you end up with a government that can do its proper job. When you keep a reserve and stay on the savings side of the ledger, you're not vulnerable to Goldman's crashes and commands. Failed governments operate solely on the borrowing side, which means they must obey their creditors instead of their people. Polistra has discussed this in detail before.



Islam requires investments to be based on real profit or increase from a real enterprise, not on abstract counterfeit numbers that Goldman can dial up or down. I can't find details on the nature of the 'enterprise' for this sukuk; it could be just a gimmick so the big Qatar sultan types can give lip service to sharia. Unfortunately there's a lot of gimmickry in these things. But if this sukUK isn't fake, it's an interesting start toward a sane economic system in one of the craziest countries on Earth. Now let's have MORE SANITY, PLEASE.

Labels: Natural law = Sharia law

  ¶ 3:55 AM

  Another comparison
Few days ago I compared the productivity of the Romneycare website to a small (government-owned) business where I worked many years ago. Basically the R-care website is turning out as many completed forms per day as a small hotel.

Another comparison. According to one of the corporate spokesmen interrogated by Congress, the final end-to-end test of the R-care website involved 200 users. The test failed, but they went ahead and released the system. You don't need a comparison to see how violently absurd this is, but let's make one anyway.

Poser graphics is a tiny piece of the overall graphics industry. Lots of people [including me] make a little bit of money, and a few people make a full-time living at it. These 'big players' work in teams via email, turning out complicated human figures or clothing items. Each released item will typically sell a few thousand copies at somewhere around $10 each. How do these 'big players' run their testing? They have a stable of enrolled testers who agree to perform detailed testing and reporting on new products, in return for a free copy of the final item. How big is the stable? About 200 testers.

So these artists, engaged in esthetically satisfying but absolutely frivolous work that cannot possibly save lives or kill people, have the same number of testers as Romneycare, which is an absolutely critical smashing of an already broken health care system of an entire nation, affecting 300 million people in various ways, with life-and-death consequences for the millions of people who can no longer afford health care after their policies were smashed by the so-called alleged accused reputed "AFFORDABLE" so-called alleged accused reputed "CARE" unquote Act of 2010. Not proportionally the same number of testers, but exactly the same number of testers.

Lesus.
  ¶ 9:39 AM

  Wonder if that was a microburst?
Pretty good windstorm last night. I slept through the whole thing for once. Why? Because wind came from an unusual direction.

99% of big winds around Spokane are from WSW, and this neighborhood is wide open to WSW winds. Last night's storm was from ENE, and this neighborhood is behind a hill from that direction.

Avista's outage map shows who was not protected, and it's a highly unusual pattern:



The north-facing side of the rich South Hill got intensely whacked. So intense that I wonder if they had something quasi-tornadic in that spot.

Labels: Heimatkunde

  ¶ 5:00 AM

  Worth reading!
This article by a Connecticut insider answers many of the big puzzles about Romneycare. It's a little hard to read because ,of ;weird punctuation ,but if you "sort" of squint ,past ,the ,strang,e , ...comma's and ,apo'strophe's ;you'll find "it sat"isfying.

Basic point: Why didn't Obama do Medicare For All? It wasn't because of pressure from the insurers. They liked the idea of an infinite monopoly but they also saw big problems in the details. So they were lukewarm. Who was red-hot? Joe Lieberman. And if Lieberman is for you, nothing can be against you.

It's all about raw imperial personal ego. Nothing more, nothing less. Joe wanted Romneycare. Therefore Romneycare happened.



After a bit of thinking: No, the basic question about Obama still remains. He had the country with him in 2010, and Lieberman had only Lieberman on his side. He didn't have either party's machinery backing him up, because he had pissed off both parties. No matter how formidable the senator, a President can always run over a senator. Why didn't Obama call out Lieberman and use public force and party force to do the right thing?

A bit more thinking: Got it. No mystery. Joe is a Jew. Jews Never Lose.
  ¶ 4:10 AM

  Fuck you up the ass, Comrade Satan Kreidler.
Unusually accurate story by a usually loyal leftist news source.

Hundreds of thousands of people in Washington state are receiving letters in the mail from their insurers, informing them "your health insurance plan will no longer be available" under the Affordable Care Act.

This is despite a promise President Obama repeated campaigning for his health care reform plan, where he stated, "if you like your plan, you can keep it."

Insurance Commissioner Mike Kreidler admits the promise was broken, but for good reason.

"It's a bit of a trade off," said Kreidler. "Yeah, you're not going to be able to keep this plan that was probably inadequate and maybe a lousy plan, and now you're going to have a new plan that is much more robust in its coverage."

Kreidler explains that part of the Affordable Care Act forced insurance companies to raise standards for their policies, requiring coverage for so-called essential benefits, like prescriptions, emergency services, and maternity.

Lesus, what a fucking snide-ass monster.

Probably inadequate? No, I had a perfectly adequate plan that I could afford. Now you've forced me to take a plan that costs $200 more. You have increased my living expenses by TWENTY PERCENT. You are STEALING MONEY FROM MY POCKET to finance a pile of ratshit that I WILL NEVER USE.

Maybe a lousy plan? No, it was fine. It's a plan from Group Health, where you, Comrade Satan Shithead Kreidler, allegedly "worked" as an optometrist for 20 years. You're insulting your old employer, satanic dickhead asshole.

Much more robust? It covers MATERNITY AND CHILD DENTAL SERVICES, which I can't possibly ever need under any possible conceivable circumstances. The old "non-robust" "lousy" plan covered exactly the events I'm likely to need, and it was affordable.

Fuck you up the ass, you snide sniveling sneering contemptuous fuckhead bully. Fuck you. Fuck you. Fuck you. I will piss on your fucking grave. I will dance on your fucking grave.

= = = = =

Later, after a LONG HARD WALK cooled me down slightly: Why aren't the Repooflicans taking advantage of this wild rage? About 200,000 people in Wash are in the same position, and similar proportions in other states. Everyone who has been paying for individual coverage is getting royally fucked. This demographic group, and the subject of the rage, should be Repooflican home territory. National Repoofs, terminally stupid as always, are continuing to focus on the website problems, which are temporary and don't really affect a natural Repoof constituency.
  ¶ 7:46 AM

  Lustralism
Rather amazing bit of statistical streakiness:



The Romans, who saw the numerical world in terms of 5 and 2, would have appreciated this. We've dropped the factors, keeping only the decadal product as a marker.
  ¶ 4:40 AM

 

RED LETTER DAY!

This CENTURY'S best news:

The Aussie government has staunchly rejected arguments that climate change is causing the wildfires ravaging eastern parts of the country following a record hot start to the spring season.

Prime Minister Tony Abbott described the link as 'complete hogwash' in an interview with News Corp's Australian newspapers.

Abbott argues that Australia has experienced wildfires for more than 200 years of European settlement and had suffered worse fires in the past.

This week, he accused Christiana Figueres, executive secretary of the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change, of ‘talking through her hat’ when she referred to the Australian wildfires as the world ‘paying the price of carbon’ in the atmosphere.

‘They are desperate to find anything that they think might pass as ammunition for their cause,’ Abbott said, referring to people who link the fires to global warming and who criticize his government's climate change policies.

FINALLY, FINALLY, FINALLY, FINALLY!

A NATIONAL LEADER who is fully sane, and willing to speak truth to the wackos!!!! We have a few other leaders who seem to be embracing sanity in a quiet practical way, but without renouncing the Official Religion of Genocide.

This is the 95 Theses moment that all fact-loving people have been waiting for.

Labels: Carbon Cult

  ¶ 2:57 AM

  Aptronym alert!
This story is especially neat because it's not the aptronym you'd expect.... but it's an even better aptronym.

Holly VanVoorhis was 7 when she asked her dad, landscape architect and Park Board member Ken VanVoorhis, if she could help him design a park. He let his daughter tinker in his drafting software until she’d designed a heart-shaped tree park.

“Immediately she said, ‘Where can we plant this in Spokane?’ ” said Holly’s mother, Mitzi VanVoorhis.

She begged and begged her parents to let her build her park, even asking a neighbor if she could plant the trees in their backyard.

Finally, after a few weeks of Holly bothering her parents, her dad called then-Mayor Mary Verner to set up an appointment. ...

Verner encouraged Holly to pursue the project and introduced her to the city Urban Forester,

Aha! City forester must be Myrtle Birch or Jack Pine, right?

Wrong.

Verner encouraged Holly to pursue the project and introduced her to the city Urban Forester, Angel Spell.

See what I mean?

... and on Tuesday the Urban Forestry Program will plant the 10th tree in the heart to mark the 10th anniversary of the first tree planted in the Susie Forest. A group of Boy Scouts started Tuesday’s task on Saturday, digging a hole where the last tree will go. “These are the projects and these are the events that make my job so amazing,” Spell said. “It gives all these people here connection to each other, connection to these trees, connection to nature, and it’s all because of Holly’s idea.”

Labels: Aptronym Alert

  ¶ 2:36 AM

  Do LED bulbs protect incandescent bulbs?
Thoroughly random and probably invalid thought.

I sternly resisted the replacement of incandescents by CFLs because it was done by official force. Incandescents were STOLEN and replaced by poison pods that could kill you.

I don't have a problem with efficiency and energy-saving, as long as it's not commanded at gunpoint. So when LED bulbs came down to a reasonable price (and claimed to be at least partly American-made) I bought two of them. Their real appeal for an old coot is not the slight increase in efficiency but the huge decrease in replacement. As I get older, the process of standing on a chair, taking off delicate glass shades and unscrewing bulbs becomes more accident-prone.

I bought them in March, seven months ago. One LED went in the kitchen and one in the living room ceiling fixture.

Here's the odd part: Since March I haven't needed to replace any bulbs at all. One incandescent is still in the living-room fixture along with the LED, because the LED is directional and the incandescent 'fills out' the room. Previously, the bulbs in that fixture needed replacing every 3 months or so, because it's on 16 hrs/day. Another incandescent in a lamp at the other end of the living room also needed replacing every 4 months, because that lamp is my 'night light'. By now I should have replaced each of those bulbs at least once.



The separate 'night-light' lamp has to be just an unrelated statistical stretch; it's only on when the LEDs are off. But I can imagine a ballast-like action for the incandescent that shares a socket with the LED. Maybe the LED is surging before the incandescent starts to draw current, dropping the voltage briefly.

= = = = =

Update Jan 6, 2014: Still no replacement. That's 9 months for a pair of bulbs that typically lasted 3 or 4 months before the LEDs were added to the mix.

= = = = =

Update May 17, 2014: The 40-w bulb that shares a socket with the LED finally burned out today. That's 14 months, turned on 16 hrs/day, totalling about 7000 hours. The desk lamp 40 still hasn't failed.

Update Oct 25: the bulb that shares with LED burned again. 5 months, back to the old pattern. So the hypothesis is also burned out. I just happened to install two extremely good bulbs at about the same time that I switched to the LED!

Labels: coot-proofing, Danbo

  ¶ 6:04 AM

  11, 17, 33
Polistra was thinking about life cycles of the annoying aphids, and decided to examine a more obvious life cycle. Why do cicadas pick 17? Assuming the cicada had already decided on a multi-year larval stage, there must have been some 'tuning' on the epigenes to hit 17 as an optimum. But optimum by what standard?

Obvious first guess: it's about halfway between 11 and 22. 17 should be the point of least synchrony with 11-year sunspot cycles, providing the best rotation among weather conditions, and the best rotation among predators whose populations respond directly to weather conditions.



The graph shows the rotation fairly well but not dramatically. Green (static) graph represents a century of 11-year sunspot cycles. Red (changing) graph represents red-eyed cicada cycles of various lengths, labeled in the upper corner of the picture.

Complicating the hypothesis: 17 is also half of 34, which is a stronger weather cycle than 11. This could put the emergence of cicadas in permanent sync with big storms, or in permanent sync with just-right seasons. Is that good or bad?
  ¶ 5:47 AM