Labels: Grand Blueprint
Originally, bridge hands were shuffled and dealt by the players themselves. During the late 1970s and into the early 1980s, serious competitions began switching to computer-generated hands. At first, players complained that the algorithms were faulty because they dealt too many wild hands with uneven distributions of cards. More often than they remembered, at least one player was dealt a void (no cards in one suit) or six or seven or more cards in the same suit. These complaints were taken seriously because the players in competitive matches had many years’ experience to back up their claims that the computer-generated hands showed wilder distributions than the hands shuffled by bridge players. Several mathematicians stepped forward and calculated the theoretical probabilities, comparing them to the actual distribution of computer-dealt hands. It turned out that the distribution of computer-generated hands was correct.No it wasn't "correct". The computer-generated distribution was mathematically random, but mathematical randomness is NEGATIVELY CORRELATED with human perception of randomness.
There is widely accepted fallacy called the “law of small numbers,” according to which short-run outcomes should be similar to long-run average outcomes. If heads comes up half the time, on average, in coin flips, then we should expect 5 heads when a coin is flipped 10 times. (In fact, there is only a 25 percent chance of 5 heads and 5 tails in that case.)No, small N is not the problem here. We're dealing (heh) with the inevitable results and patterns of a random process that is filtered through thresholds or categories. In this case the categories are the four suits in a deck of cards. In other cases the categories may be types of disease in a city or types of fish in a pond or types of music in a playlist. = = = = = START REPRINT: The recent big lottery brings up randomness again. Lotteries are a very rare case, maybe the only situation in common experience, where a mathematical randomizer shows up in PURE or raw form. The vast majority of "randomized" events in our lives are THRESHOLDED random. Let's see if I can illustrate the difference. This first animation shows some bars rising and falling by a pure mathematical random process. The height of each bar is decided separately at each frame of the movie. Notice that this set of motions looks fully random; you can't see any pattern in it. Now I've added a THRESHOLD across the bars. This makes the situation far more realistic, corresponding to many random-driven events in ordinary life. From this angle it still looks unpatterned. Now we're looking at the same THRESHOLDED situation from the top. Now we can see all sorts of patterns! At each moment we can see CLUSTERS of bars that have popped above the threshold, and we can't see the bars that are below. Most importantly, we don't see the continuously variable heights any more; we only see the DECISION. Each bar has turned into a yes-no vote. Everything we sense is thresholded. These bars might represent sounds coming from all sorts of things (crickets, doors, cars, dogs in your yard, dogs in China, rivers in Argentina.) All of those things are in the air, but you only hear the nearest and strongest. Same with points of light, or weights on your hand, or differences in income and status between you and your neighbor. You only sense values that pop up above your internal threshold. The most direct analogy for this image might be a field of grass seeds popping through the soil. They are driven by temperature and moisture, so they will tend to sprout within a limited range of time; but each one has a unique micro-climate depending on shadows, bacteria, earthworms, etc. Another prime example: Cancer clusters. Each bar corresponds to one person, with a varying number of cancerous cells. Everyone has some cancerous cells all the time, but we don't register a case of cancer until the number of cells pops through the threshold of a screening test. Each frame in the animation might correspond to a map of cancer cases in one year. Some of the frames show very definite clusters of cancer cases! Better look for known carcinogens where those clusters formed! Is there a power line? A kerosene lamp? A cell phone? No, it's most likely just random stuff. Or we could be talking about weather events. Rivers rise and fall all the time, but we don't call it a flood until a river rises above the line of the nearest occupied land. Some of these bars seem to be flooding several years in a row! It's global warming! No, it's most likely just random stuff. But not always. In some cases a repeated flood is just part of this clustering effect, but repetition is actually more likely than plain clustering would imply. Everything in Nature depends in infinitely complex ways on previous events. If Wildcat Creek floods in March, the ground is still wetter than usual in May, so it takes less rain than usual to bring the creek up to flood stage. The threshold has moved. There are also long-term trends like sunspot cycles and El Nino / La Nina ocean oscillations. If conditions favor big rains this year, the trends are likely to favor big rains next year as well. Probably have to wait several years until the cycles return to a dry phase. To illustrate, I've moved the threshold up and down in a sine wave. First as seen from the side, just to show what's really happening: Now from the top. Wow! We got 500-year floods everywhere, for several years in a row! And then we have terrible droughts everywhere, for several years in a row! This can't be random! Yes it can. The bars are still moving in the very same pattern; the driving forces haven't changed. It's just that the conditions for popping each event above the threshold are changing from year to year as they do in Nature. People who see life through the prism of statistics have trouble handling thresholds. Abstract academics have to shoehorn life into closed-form real-number equations, and you can't use a threshold in that context. Thresholding is perfectly natural to a binary computer. An on-off choice is easy to write as code, and the computer can handle it more precisely than a continuous number. But this naturalness doesn't penetrate the academic mind. If you can't write a continuous function suitable for a slide rule, you can't begin to think about the problem. = = = = = END REPRINT. My illustrations show only two categories, above and below threshold, but the same rule applies with four categories. The players expect to see a relatively smooth distribution of categories over time, not a perfect mathematical random. They don't want to see long streaks of hearts or gaps of spades. Computerized random always gives you streaks and gaps in categories. The "imperfect" shuffling apparently leaves a smoother pattern of categories. Since bridge is a HUMAN game played by HUMANS, the shuffle should give the HUMAN players what they want to work with.
The men pictured are suspects in the unlawful use of credit cards taken in a burglary earlier in January of this year. In the same incident a car was stolen and numerous other items of value were taken from the home. The crime took place in a home where the elderly occupants had recently passed away and irreplaceable heirlooms and keepsakes were also taken. The SPD wants your help to get these items back to the family of the recently deceased couple.We know they won't spend serious time in jail, because real criminals never spend more than a coffeebreak in jail around here. Too bad. In the old days they would have spent a few years, and those years would have been ESPECIALLY nasty, brutish and short. Black criminals RESPECT GRANDMA and RESPECT THE DEAD. Italians and the old tribes are the same. Thugs who mess with ghosts wouldn't last long.
Labels: Jail mode
To better treat people with depression, not only must we treat the neurons affected by the disease, but we must also restore the integrity of the barrier that regulates exchanges between blood circulation and the brain. Between 30% and 50% of those suffering from depression respond either poorly or not at all to antidepressants," says main author Caroline Ménard, professor at Université Laval's Faculty of Medicine and researcher at the Cervo Brain Research Centre. "This suggests that biological mechanisms other than those directly affecting neurons are at play," adds some asshole who holds a Named Chair at the Centre For Something. Conversely, depressed stressed mice express more of an enzyme called HDAC1 that triggers a loss of claudin-5. "When a chemical compound is used to block HDAC1, the depressive mice produce more claudin-5 and their social interactions spontaneously increase," says some other named-chair asshole who directs some other Centre.No, named-chair assholes. If medication fails, it's not because you haven't broken through the blood-brain barrier to create a complicated chemical reaction in precisely defined proteins and enzymes. It's not working because it's THE WRONG FUCKING ANSWER FROM START TO FINISH. Depression is caused by prolonged and persistent frustration. Repeated attempts to achieve physically impossible goals based on unrealistic expectations. Depression is cured by finding more realistic expectations, and by finding unpunished and unfrustrated ways to DO YOUR DUTY and BE USEFUL. Every living creature has a duty. Every living creature needs to be needed, needs to feel useful. Wrong expectations, formed by reductionist mechanical worldviews, are the main cause of depression. When you start with the genocidal assumption that all creatures are identical passive mechanisms, you will try to do things that are impossible. You will try to ascend the status ladder or achieve power or be liked. When your attempts fail, you will try harder because reductionism tells you that anything is possible if you try hard enough. If you are born with low status and low popularity, those goals are PHYSICALLY IMPOSSIBLE. Attempting to achieve them is SUICIDAL. You need to find your proper unique duty and DO IT. You also need to keep moving and establish a rhythm and resonance. MAKE. WALK.
Labels: Make or break
The delights of winter touring by motor-car can only be enjoyed when accompanied with good fellowship, and when the keenness of cold winds is mitigated by great depths of fur and appropriate raiment. Provided with both essentials, the trio of motor-enthusiasts recognisable in the photograph recently participated in a tour from France to Wales, which was thoroughly enjoyed, and should add another demonstration to the attractiveness of the new means of locomotion for winter touring as well as for summer trips. The vehicle was an 8-h.p. Panhard car, and with it the party left Paris a few days before Christmas. Members of the Automobile Club will readily identify the three travellers, while those who are not within that organisation will be interested in the features of Mr. Roger Wallace, Q.C., the presidont of the club, who is to the left of the Hon. C. S. Rolls, to whom the ear belonged. Though the upturned collar prevents a full view of the latter's face, it gives some idea of the way in which the party were prepared for any climatic conditions. Seated behind is Mr. Frank H. Buller, treasurer of the Automobile Club.Rolls was a car dealer for a while before he joined up with Royce to build cars. Another picture shows Rolls piloting a Peugeot. There were plenty of English autos available at that time, but Rolls obviously preferred the French.
A Springfield, Mass., contemporary. discussing the advance of the motor-vehicles in the United States, advances the opinion that it will "take the U.S.A. half a century of progressive road building and improved paving before any but the few largest cities in the United States could utilise motor-waggons for the ordinary purposes of traffic." Our contemporary continues :— "The recent tremendous snow-falls remind us that conditions are likely from time to time to arise in all northern cities under which the motorwaggons would be as helpless as a bicycle on a sandy road. It was more than 24 hours after the recent nine-inch snowfall in New York before even the main avenues of travel in the business section of the metropolis were cleared of snow, and it was several days later before the rest of the city proper was cleared, to say nothing of the other boroughs of Greater New York. The spectacle must have given Mr. Croker and the other would-be revolutionists of the trucking and passenger carrying business in New York a very bad half hour's reflections. If their plan had been effected and motorcarriages and waggons had entirely supplanted horse-drawn vehicles in this city, there could not have been a pound of freight or a single carriage passenger moved in the city for many hours, and the blockade of traffic and delay of business would have been perfectly intolerable."Needless to say, it still takes a long time to clear the snow from streets in a city. Our motor waggons have improved, but a good snowfall still stops all traffic for a day or two. Snow doesn't stop horses. = = = = = Looking up Mr Croker: He was the leader of Tammany Hall at that time.
Croker was in the newspapers in 1899 after a disagreement with Jay Gould's son, George Gould, president of the Manhattan Elevated Railroad Company, when Gould refused Croker's attempt to attach compressed-air pipes to the Elevated company's structures. Croker owned many shares of the New York Auto-Truck Company, a company which would have benefited from the arrangement. In response to the refusal, Croker used Tammany influence to create new city laws requiring drip pans under structures in Manhattan at every street crossing and the requirement that the railroad run trains every five minutes with a $100 violation for every instance.In other words, he wasn't really a prophetic lover of autos, he was a normal NYC businessman using blackmail to raise his Share Value.
Labels: Shared Lie
Labels: From rights to duties
Labels: Experiential education
Ted Allbeury, the Kent farmer who is managing director of Radio 390, said that the PMG has been misinformed about offshore radio and that he would welcome the occasion to explain to him exactly what they are doing, how they are doing it, and why they are doing it. Radio 390 has been likened to the BBC Light Programme he said. The comparison is a fair one, he added, but unlike the BBC which tries to satisfy all of the people some of the time, Radio 390 sets out to please some people all of the time. The serious press reaction was interesting in that while treating the pirates like a headmaster might speak to pleasant pupils who'd been party-ing without permission, it expressed sympathy with the needs which they supplied and advised the Government not to behave in a negative fashion.Made me curious. Did Allbeury end up in prison, or did he simply return to farming? Neither. And he wasn't a farmer at all, HE WAS A SPY. From Wikipedia, Allbeury was a Special Ops spy in the '40s and '50s, then briefly ran an advertising agency, then briefly ran Radio 390, then settled down into writing spy novels. In other words, he switched from military warfare to information warfare, and those pirates were Deepstate operations. This explains the mild reaction of the serious press. They always know who's Deepstate and who isn't. Unlike the BBC which tries to satisfy all of the people some of the time, Radio 390 sets out to please some people all of the time. Here's the seed of Fox "versus" CNN. Murdoch and Turner, both Deepstaters with equally murky origin stories, created "competing" networks with a pirate feel. Each set of viewers feels like a clandestine group committed to defeating the other set of viewers. Neither set is ever exposed to facts. They spend all their time "debating" Shared Lies.
Labels: Carbon Cult
Polistra was named after the original townsite of Manhattan (the one in Kansas). When I was growing up in Manhattan, I spent a lot of time exploring by foot, bike, and car. I discovered the ruins of an old mill along Wildcat Creek, and decided (inaccurately) that it was the remains of the original site of Polistra. Accurate or not, I've always liked the name, with its echoes of Poland (an under-appreciated friend of freedom) and stars. ==== The title icon is explained here. ==== Switchover: This 2007 entry marks a sharp change in worldview from neocon to pure populist. ===== The long illustrated story of Polistra's Dream is a time-travel fable, attempting to answer the dangerous revision of New Deal history propagated by Amity Shlaes. The Dream has 8 episodes, linked in a chain from the first. This entry explains the Shlaes connection.