Saturday, September 05, 2020
Not the remarkable part.
A prophecy for the future of radio, from a 1902 British cultural journal.
May I be allowed to sum up one or two considerations as to the probable influence of wireless telegraphy on the future of our race? In the first place a severance of communication with any part of the earth - even the Antipodes — will henceforth be impossible. Storms that overthrow telegraph posts, and malice that cuts our cables, are impotent in the all-pervading ether.Oops. Didn't foresee jamming and hackers. Malice always finds a way. Also, storms can overthrow antennas, and nearby lightning can bust a radio more easily than a telegraph. The latter was already known in 1902.
An explorer like Stanley in the tropical forest, or Geary amid ice-fields, will report daily progress in the Times. Every wandering tramp-steamer will have its wireless spar, and will be in constant touch with vessels that dot the ocean all about it. Sir William Preece's dream of signalling to Mars may yet be realised.Good predictions, all came true.
A governing fact is the cheapening of the new force. Everything essential to human happiness is cheap - air, water, the bountiful fruits of the earth — and electricity is no exception. Hitherto the cost of wires has kept this blessing from the bulk of mankind. Already the Marconi Company offers to telegraph to India at half the present rates, and Mr. Marconi promises messages to America at a penny a word.He didn't foresee, and really couldn't foresee, that the 'free' ether would be overcrowded by multiple signals, requiring government licensing and taxes to insure that useful signals had a chance of getting through. Rent always finds a way.
Our ultimate ideal must be instantaneous electrical communication with every man on earth, ashore or afloat, at a cost within the reach of everyone.Remarkable! He predicted the iPhone! After reading a number of predictions from that decade, I've come to realize that the iPhone part was NOT remarkable. Telegraphs and telephones were two-way personal communication, so extending them to radio was an easy analogy. What's remarkable is that the prophets DIDN'T predict one-way broadcasting. Experimenters were already broadcasting voice and music around 1905, and it was the dominant use of radio for 100 years. The predictors DIDN'T see that radio would partly replace newspapers, concert halls, and theaters. Why? Maybe because the existing one-way media were primarily visual?
Labels: Asked and partly answered
¶ 2:17 AM
