Thursday, July 26, 2018
Leutz, BRICS
There's an important difference between 'living fossils' and cantilevers.
Viewing technologies or organizations on a timeline. Various ideas start, gain some traction, then fail.
A living fossil is an old technology or old organization that carries on with some degree of success while everything around it changes. I've made a point of celebrating Willys, a company that carried the best of 1933 automotive features through many decades, and finally gained major success. The old setup turned out to be correct.
The British Parliament is another old tech that still functions better than the rigid "modern" tyrannies invented in France and USA STRONG. The best living fossil of all is Natural Law.
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Cantilevers are technologies or organizations that dangle dangerously over the cliff of new developments, without any meaningful value. In this case the new has replaced the old for good reasons, but the old continues moving forward without any support and ends up hanging over the edge like Wile E. Coyote.
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An example in radio. From 1910 to 1923** home radios were modular. You had to buy and connect an antenna, a power supply, a tuner, a detector, two or three amplifier stages, and a speaker. Great for amateurs and experimenters, but wildly impractical for ordinary listeners.
After 1923, manufacturers quickly found ways to mount everything in one cabinet. Here's a high-class 1929 radio with ten tubes.
But Leutz thought modularity was still the best way to go, and proved it with this high-class 1929 ten-tube radio:
Oops. Unsurprisingly Leutz failed.
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In the fast-moving development of the non-Sorosian world, an early organization got cantilevered, left behind by superior developments but still hanging over the edge. BRICS was going to be the counterforce to NATO and EU.
Oops.
Russia and China are still the main foundation of the anti-Soros world, but Brazil and India and South Africa are no longer part of the setup. India continues playing both sides against the middle with reasonable success. Brazil is strongly self-sufficient and doesn't really need trading partners. South Africa decided to abandon prosperity and follow the fine example of its neighbor Zimbabwe instead.
Even though BRICS has been replaced by the Silk Road concept, Putin is attending a 10th anniversary commemoration of BRICS in South Africa today. I suppose he's recognizing the pioneering idea, not the misplaced reality.
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** Why is 1923 an inflection point from experimentation to a real business? Because the government allocated distinct frequencies for stations in 1923. Before that, all stations were nominally operating on one frequency. Sort of like switching from a massive fleamarket, with every trader shouting his wares, to separate storefronts for each business.
Viewing technologies or organizations on a timeline. Various ideas start, gain some traction, then fail.
A living fossil is an old technology or old organization that carries on with some degree of success while everything around it changes. I've made a point of celebrating Willys, a company that carried the best of 1933 automotive features through many decades, and finally gained major success. The old setup turned out to be correct.
The British Parliament is another old tech that still functions better than the rigid "modern" tyrannies invented in France and USA STRONG. The best living fossil of all is Natural Law.
= = = = =
Cantilevers are technologies or organizations that dangle dangerously over the cliff of new developments, without any meaningful value. In this case the new has replaced the old for good reasons, but the old continues moving forward without any support and ends up hanging over the edge like Wile E. Coyote.
= = = = =
An example in radio. From 1910 to 1923** home radios were modular. You had to buy and connect an antenna, a power supply, a tuner, a detector, two or three amplifier stages, and a speaker. Great for amateurs and experimenters, but wildly impractical for ordinary listeners.
After 1923, manufacturers quickly found ways to mount everything in one cabinet. Here's a high-class 1929 radio with ten tubes.
But Leutz thought modularity was still the best way to go, and proved it with this high-class 1929 ten-tube radio:
Oops. Unsurprisingly Leutz failed.
= = = = =
In the fast-moving development of the non-Sorosian world, an early organization got cantilevered, left behind by superior developments but still hanging over the edge. BRICS was going to be the counterforce to NATO and EU.
Oops.
Russia and China are still the main foundation of the anti-Soros world, but Brazil and India and South Africa are no longer part of the setup. India continues playing both sides against the middle with reasonable success. Brazil is strongly self-sufficient and doesn't really need trading partners. South Africa decided to abandon prosperity and follow the fine example of its neighbor Zimbabwe instead.
Even though BRICS has been replaced by the Silk Road concept, Putin is attending a 10th anniversary commemoration of BRICS in South Africa today. I suppose he's recognizing the pioneering idea, not the misplaced reality.
= = = = =
** Why is 1923 an inflection point from experimentation to a real business? Because the government allocated distinct frequencies for stations in 1923. Before that, all stations were nominally operating on one frequency. Sort of like switching from a massive fleamarket, with every trader shouting his wares, to separate storefronts for each business.Labels: Alternate universe, Sorosia
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