Monday, December 23, 2019
Pre-hoc
Random thought after viewing the Aussie PM's stern and solid response to Greta's hysteria.
We're taught that 'post hoc ergo propter hoc' is a fallacy. Bad teaching.
In fact post-hoc is usually a good indicator when used properly. If A and B are plausibly related, and B always seems to move in response to A, then you've got a pretty good case that A causes B. You need experiments to prove it for sure, but the experiments will be worth trying.
Post-hoc fails when it tries to connect things that aren't demonstrably or visibly connected, or when it looks at one brief interval of correlation and ignores long-term disconnection. There are lots of accidental short-term correlations in the world.
The "climate" fraudsters are committing a vastly more serious fallacy, the pre-hoc fallacy. In the actual record of earth's temperature (as opposed to THEORY) temperature moves first, followed by CO2. Post-hoc thinking tells us correctly that CO2 increases when the oceans are outgassing more. In this case the post-hoc relation is DEMONSTRABLY true from the ACTUAL RECORD. The fraudsters want us to believe that CO2 moves first, which does happen in simple closed systems like a glass-enclosed greenhouse. It doesn't happen in the history of Earth.
Labels: Carbon Cult, Carver
¶ 5:19 AM
