Tuesday, August 30, 2011
  Cop or codger?

WUWT points to a frustrating interview of Bill Nye The Idiot Guy by Charles Payne on Fox Business.

Idiot Guy is claiming, counter to 100% of all evidence and facts, that evil Carbon caused Hurricane Irene. Payne manages to make the correct counter-argument for a moment, but doesn't have the facts and graphs. Idiot Nye manages to roll over him with insane apocalyptic passion and bloody force.

This is ALWAYS the case with well-intentioned people who try to argue against Carbon Cultists. They ALWAYS fail to use graphs, ALWAYS give up too easily against genocidal Gramscian barbarians.

In the discussion at WUWT, too many of the commenters missed the point in another way, trying to say that Idiot Bill didn't have a climatology degree. Nope, that won't help. In the first place, credentialism is always a tool of the Left, because the Left OWNS the agencies and universities that grant the credentials. As soon as you allow credentials to enter the argument, you've LOST. In the second place, the specific credential of climatology is totally corrupt. Nye's lack of a climatology degree, if that's the only thing you knew about him, would tend to make him slightly more believable.

All valid arguments must be purely based on facts and logic, and must use every available visual aid.

The best way to use facts and logic is to compare patterns and look for visual correlations. (I don't mean an r-squared number, I mean a close agreement and phase lock between two or more waveforms.) It's true that visual correlation doesn't tell you how the causation happens, but a good solid phase lock tells you there is some kind of causative relationship. Complete lack of correlation tells you there is no meaningful connection. Even if you think there's some reason to connect the two phenomena, the lack of similarity tells you the connection must be minor and overwhelmed by other factors, thus not worth worrying about. You should be working on the big factors, not worrying about the invisible ones!

That's where the theoreticians take us all into Loonyville. They never admit that their pet connection is non-existent or minor. They refuse to see that the Apocalypse didn't happen when their prophet said it would. They continue spending infinite amounts of OUR money to create epicycles and exceptions, trying to make an excuse for each mismatch.

In the immortal words of the great philosopher Homey D. Clown, "Science don't play dat."

Science works with actual relationships and discards non-related patterns.

= = = = =

Let's take a down-home example. You're cruising down the interstate and you suddenly realize a blue Crown Vic has been in your mirror for an awful long time. A Crown Vic is either a cop or a codger. Which? Is he trailing you? How do you verify your suspicion?

Just continuing to roll along the interstate won't tell you anything. The Crown Vic could just happen to be going the same way, like thousands of others, in no special hurry to pass.

To find out, you have to break linearity. Take an exit, then make a series of turns that aren't popular or obvious. If the Crown Vic is still behind you after 5 or 6 turns, he's a cop.

Similarly with natural curves. Two lines that move up steadily don't tell you much. Lots of things tend to increase steadily or decrease steadily for a long time. You need to see both lines make the same series of turns together. If the alleged 'leader' makes a bunch of turns while the supposed 'follower' goes straight up ... or vice versa ... you know they aren't connected. And if the alleged 'follower' is making the turns first, you know for sure that it's really the leader.

With hurricanes, we have hurricane intensity, the supposed 'follower', going through a series of ups and downs with a definite down toward the end, while CO2, the supposed 'leader', goes straight up.

Here's a good visual aid, which Charles Payne should have used.



From the incomparable Ryan Maue's Tropical Cyclone chart, with a NOAA CO2 line superimposed. (I used 1970 to 2010 to make the horiz axis as precise as possible.)

The red CO2 line is the alleged 'leader', and the blue hurricane intensity is the alleged 'follower'. Nope, not a cop. Not tracking at all.

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Polistra was named after the original townsite of Manhattan (the one in Kansas). When I was growing up in Manhattan, I spent a lot of time exploring by foot, bike, and car. I discovered the ruins of an old mill along Wildcat Creek, and decided (inaccurately) that it was the remains of the original site of Polistra. Accurate or not, I've always liked the name, with its echoes of Poland (an under-appreciated friend of freedom) and stars. ==== The title icon is explained here. ==== Switchover: This 2007 entry marks a sharp change in worldview from neocon to pure populist. ===== The long illustrated story of Polistra's Dream is a time-travel fable, attempting to answer the dangerous revision of New Deal history propagated by Amity Shlaes. The Dream has 8 episodes, linked in a chain from the first. This entry explains the Shlaes connection.

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