Cavalier isn't the worst problem
Via ZH, Mish Shedlock has found some earlier writing by Kupperman, the full Tribal who replaced insufficiently Tribal Bolton as Nat Sec Advisor.

In true autistic Tribal form:

Nuclear war is a destructive thing but still in large part a physics problem.

If the objective in a war is to try to destroy as many Soviet civilians and as many American civilians as is feasible, and the casualty levels approached 150 million on each side, then it’s going to be tough to say you have a surviving nation after that. But depending on how the nuclear war is fought, it could mean the difference between 150 million casualties and 20 million casualties. I think that is a significant difference, and if the country loses 20 million people, you may have a chance of surviving after that.

I think it is possible to win, in the classical sense. It means that it is clear after the war that one side is stronger than the other side, the weaker side is going to accede to the demands of the stronger side.

Shedlock calls this a cavalier attitude, which is an understatement. The real problem is that Kupperman's FACTUAL assumptions were FALSE in the '80s and even more drastically FALSE now.

As I wrote earlier:

= = = = = START REPRINT:

Supposedly the 'duck and cover' drills and the fallout shelters of 1960 were generators of panic. Nope, it's the exact opposite, by intention and result. Eisenhower and JFK wanted Americans to feel confident. That's why they built public shelters and encouraged the building of private shelters.

Basic fact about anxiety: When you do something that gives you a convincing sense of control, you lose the panic.

When you have your own tornado/fallout shelter, or you know there's a public tornado/fallout shelter nearby, you don't panic nearly as much about the mysterious tornado/fallout.

Later presidents, beginning with Unhanged Traitor Carter, intentionally substituted panic for confidence, and concentrated solely on protecting their own personal dictatorial ass. The fallout shelter system, and the Civil Defense warning system, were allowed to lapse and gradually deleted from the bureaucracy.

In 2001 when the dreaded event finally happened, no part of the government responded and no emergency warnings were broadcast. The Professional Panicators at the cable TV networks grabbed the fearball and ran with it, with considerable help from Sultan Bush's bureaucrats.

Mission accomplished: Total vulnerability. Civil Defense was replaced by Cognitive Dissonance. We realized the government was absolutely useless (or worse) and we simultaneously had to obey the government's "protective measures" like TSA.
China and Russia never abandoned Civil Defense. They continued to serve their own people with vast and well-maintained bunkers.

See this 1971 Civil Defense document in PDF form. It's a formerly classified study of shelter and evacuation options, and it explicitly cites Soviet shelters and plans as a 'gold standard'. So we knew good and goddamn well that we were providing less protection than the USSR.


= = = = = END REPRINT.

There is also a CULTURAL assumption that the autistic Tribals miss, or more likely know and lie about. Russia is a nation and an ethnic group and a church, all in one. The Soviets tried to break the church but failed, and didn't try very hard after 1941. Russians are unconditionally Russian, and educated and trained for real life. See Orlov.

Putin has been working to rebuild and strengthen the unity of nation and culture and church, which never fully disappeared. Our government has been smashing and obliterating and pulverizing our culture and religion since 1946.

Footnote: Checking the hrefs, I see the 1971 Civil Defense document is no longer openly available. It's behind a DHS dictatorial-ass-protecting wall. This is typical. When I wrote the above in 2011, the web had reached a peak of information openness. Since then, useful info has been disappearing fast.

Labels: defensible spaces, Pluponents, Shared Lie

  ¶ 9:56 PM