The last roaring mouse
Maduro starts a new term with even less support than before. Among his neighbors, only Bolivia is halfway with him.

Some US commentators think he's bad because he's "socialist". Most of the opponents quoted in various articles are accusing him of offending the "constitution". Neither is meaningful. "Elected" and "constitutional" leaders are usually worse than hereditary monarchs. "Socialist" governments generally work better than "capitalist" governments.

The problem with Maduro is simple.

HE'S STUPID.

He's the last of a bad breed in Latin America. Venezuela's government has been a total servant of Standard Oil since 1922, obeying Graybill's Law perfectly. Previous rulers, including Chavez, were smart enough to keep the country pacified by redistributing the oil wealth. Maduro isn't.

He has belatedly tried to claim the title of Populist, but that doesn't work. He's the exact opposite, the quintessential globalist. He tried to link up with Russia in the restored bipolar world, but Russia doesn't need oil and doesn't need a stupid friend.

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Competent roaring mice were always able to stay alive by playing the well-established Graybill game with USA. Supply exactly one resource, get money for your mansions and limousines and concubines.

Why did it fail? Not quite so simple. Partly because the US approach to mice has changed, mostly because Maduro couldn't keep the oil flowing.

US mouse policy was formerly more systematic and objective. Since the Switchover our mouse policy has been subjective and personal.

We serve Saudi and Israel.

Venezuela's oil competes with Saudi oil, so we don't want it badly enough to waste money on a stupid mouse.

In the bipolar world of the '50s and '60s, some socialist countries formed a "Non-aligned Group" that generally worked with Russia but got some goodies from USA by promising to non-align more. In the current bipolar setup, Maduro and Macron could try the same trick with a "Short Bus Group" or "Clown Car Group" or "Mad Mac: Beyond The Dunderdome". Sell egregious self-destructive idiocy to the highest bidder.

Labels: skill-estate, switchover

  ¶ 12:41 AM