Thursday, June 22, 2017
Pointless research, interesting fact.
Pointless research: A software researcher is seeing if you can predict passage of a newly introduced bill in Congress, solely by processing the bill's text.
You don't need analysis. Just ask a Congressional staffer to speak on background. You'll never get the truth from any elected politician, but a staffer who feels like leaking will tell the truth.
Interesting fact:
Because bills fail 96% of the time, a simple “always fail” strategy would almost always be right.
Damn. I knew most bills were pure noise, but I didn't think it was 96%!
If I wanted to analyze it mechanically, I'd compare bills in the Upper Nuthouse and Lower Nuthouse. If a nearly identical bill is running through the pipeline in both "parties" and in both Nuthouses, there's some chance of passage. If the bill is in only one "party" or only one Nuthouse, it's pure noise, designed to score talking points and bring in campaign money.
¶ 10:34 AM 
