Thursday, December 15, 2016
No, wait.
Headline on article by Ritholtz:
Put Forecasting in Its Final Resting Place
Promising. I started reading....
One of the things I failed to learn after writing a book was the simple fact that methodically demonstrating a thing with data and evidence doesn’t resolve that issue. I shouldn’t have been so naive, given that some people still are flat-earthers, or are anti-vaxxers, or Holocaust deniers, or claim that global warming is a Chinese hoax. Which is why, despite all of the earlier discussions about the folly of forecasts, I find myself once again compelled to bring up this subject......I got ready to debunk the usual false conflations, then realized... the people who NEED to learn that forecasting is wrong are the same people who will CALMLY NOD THEIR HEADS at the first paragraph. People like me who GROWL at the first paragraph don't NEED to learn that forecasting is wrong. We already know. Though Ritholtz didn't mean it that way, the first paragraph is a proper self-selecting filter, like the sucker filter on scam emails. ¶ 1:59 AM
