One of the things I failed to learn after writing a book was the simple fact that methodically demonstrating a thing with data and evidence doesn’t resolve that issue. I shouldn’t have been so naive, given that some people still are flat-earthers, or are anti-vaxxers, or Holocaust deniers, or claim that global warming is a Chinese hoax. Which is why, despite all of the earlier discussions about the folly of forecasts, I find myself once again compelled to bring up this subject......I got ready to debunk the usual false conflations, then realized... the people who NEED to learn that forecasting is wrong are the same people who will CALMLY NOD THEIR HEADS at the first paragraph. People like me who GROWL at the first paragraph don't NEED to learn that forecasting is wrong. We already know. Though Ritholtz didn't mean it that way, the first paragraph is a proper self-selecting filter, like the sucker filter on scam emails.
Polistra was named after the original townsite of Manhattan (the one in Kansas). When I was growing up in Manhattan, I spent a lot of time exploring by foot, bike, and car. I discovered the ruins of an old mill along Wildcat Creek, and decided (inaccurately) that it was the remains of the original site of Polistra. Accurate or not, I've always liked the name, with its echoes of Poland (an under-appreciated friend of freedom) and stars. ==== The title icon is explained here. ==== Switchover: This 2007 entry marks a sharp change in worldview from neocon to pure populist. ===== The long illustrated story of Polistra's Dream is a time-travel fable, attempting to answer the dangerous revision of New Deal history propagated by Amity Shlaes. The Dream has 8 episodes, linked in a chain from the first. This entry explains the Shlaes connection.