Monday, October 24, 2016
What is a projection?
Headline:
Species may be listed as threatened based on climate change projections, court says
What is a PROJECTION?
A projection is a prejudice by definition.
It is a preconceived NOTION applied to an entire group, based on limited or nonexistent facts.
Some prejudices are perfectly valid, some are stupid. 100% of the statements that we currently call "prejudices" are not prejudices at all. They are simple and obvious facts, as close to universal as you can get when judging complex living things.
Some projections can turn out to be valid, but most are guaranteed to be wildly wrong. The people who are paid to make projections, just like Swift's PROJECTORS in Laputa, use linear extrapolation.
Linear extrapolation works for a simple mechanism like a lever or a gear. If the gears have a 1:10 ratio and the driving gear rotates 4 turns, we can project validly that the driven gear will make 40 turns.
Linear extrapolation FAILS every time when applied to real natural phenomena, including economics. Nature never moves like gears or levers. Most of the things we're interested in measuring move in a tanh or irregular sinusoid pattern.
The specific projections of "global warming" are wrong beyond linear vs tanh. "Global warming" is a precisely backwards theory which has been disproved thousands of times in thousands of ways. There's no way you can use a bad theory for prediction or projection. Math won't help.
So: this "court" is allowing the dysgovernment to steal private property and destroy cities and dams based on an INVALID AND FALSE PREJUDICE.
Labels: Carbon Cult
¶ 5:02 PM
