Friday, June 19, 2015
  30-second disproof

I keep hearing on money-talk and news shows that "Social Security was meant for short-lived people". Supposedly the system was designed for people who died before 65, or at best might live two or three years beyond 65. Supposedly it was meant to have lots of input and near-zero output. Supposedly it's in trouble now because our Superior Wonderful Best In The World Health Care keeps us alive a lot longer now.

I went along with this crap until recently. I've probably written this crap more than once.

After repeatedly wandering through the pages of the 1940 census and seeing WAY TOO MANY 80s and 90s in the age column, I started to doubt this crap. I've already doubted other crap about the Depression era.

Google didn't take long to disprove it ... in fact SSA itself makes a point of disproving it!

Screencap of a table at SSA:



12.7 when the system started, 15.3 for people who are dying now.

Gain of 2.6 years after 50 years of our "Best In The World Health Care". It's a little longer but not a WHOLE LOT longer. Pretty much the level of difference you'd design into the system as a cushion.

Most of the difference in overall life expectancy comes from an improvement in infant and childhood mortality, i.e. FUCKING VACCINATION.

In other words, the demographic predictions of 1936 are STILL GOOD. Medicare is the bigger problem because its 1965 planners couldn't foresee medical costs rising 5 times faster than inflation. Both SS and Medicare are in trouble because of the INPUT side of the equation. 1936 and 1965 failed to predict that future hyperhyperhypersatanic all-destroying omnicidal mismismismismisrulers would DELETE America's entire economy.

This graph shows the evil work of the modern fuckhead monsterblobs. Men have been pushed out of the labor force steadily since 1963, and fast since 2000. The total was compensated by bringing in women from 1963 to 2000, but even women are no longer finding work to be worth the rewards.

Later thought: This myth of tremendously longer life seems to be leading many people into tremendously longer work. They think: "Retirement at 65 was okay for Grandpa because Grandpa was going to die at 67. I'm going to die at 90, so I need to build up millions and millions in my IRA." Financial media are helping to push the myth, because the sponsors of financial media want to have people expanding their 401Ks instead of drawing them down.

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Polistra was named after the original townsite of Manhattan (the one in Kansas). When I was growing up in Manhattan, I spent a lot of time exploring by foot, bike, and car. I discovered the ruins of an old mill along Wildcat Creek, and decided (inaccurately) that it was the remains of the original site of Polistra. Accurate or not, I've always liked the name, with its echoes of Poland (an under-appreciated friend of freedom) and stars. ==== The title icon is explained here. ==== Switchover: This 2007 entry marks a sharp change in worldview from neocon to pure populist. ===== The long illustrated story of Polistra's Dream is a time-travel fable, attempting to answer the dangerous revision of New Deal history propagated by Amity Shlaes. The Dream has 8 episodes, linked in a chain from the first. This entry explains the Shlaes connection.

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