The sun's input across the seasons (yellow line above) is a soft-saturated or flattop sine. The seasonal response (green line) is underdamped, with overshoot on the spring/fall deltas and a sag toward the mean in summer and winter.
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Playing with black boxes..... If we assume that the local climate involves some kind of negative feedback, we can characterize the feedback.
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First, could it be a strictly linear feedback, with no storage or filtering? In that case it would behave like the first animation. Mr Sun gives his flattop input to the Op-Amp. Feedback is nothing but a voltage divider, as visualized by the bouncing ball. Strictly following Mr Sun. Result, unsurprisingly, is the same flattop sine. This won't do.
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Second, could the feedback be a high-pass filter? In that case it would behave like this second animation. Mr Sun gives the identical flattop input. Feedback (bouncing ball) is high-passed, giving only the deltas to the inverting input. Result would be a retardation of the ups and downs in spring and fall, and an emphasis on winter and summer. Nope, that's not it either.
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Third, how about a low-pass filter for feedback? Mr Sun does his thing again. Feedback (bouncing ball) responds slowly to spring and fall, gradually reaching full top and bottom values. Result is an emphasis on the ups and downs in spring and fall, and a sag during the flattop times.
That's it! Goldilocks!
The current icon shows Polistra using a Personal Equation Machine.