Thursday, May 05, 2011
  Bugsy's Weimar ---> Osama's victory

Interesting article in UK Telegraph by economist Paul Lilico, who understands how humans work.

Lilico's basic point: Bugsy Bernanke's Weimar manipulations to monetize the federal debt (QE), plus the evil effects of globalization, have led to the 'Arab Spring'.

[To be clear, the following isn't part of Lilico's argument but it's nevertheless true: The 'Arab Spring' is the final victory of Sheikh Osama's agenda. Secular rulers who obeyed the Western empires are being replaced by hard-line Islamists who obey their own people. It's also a victory for plain old nationalism, and ends the era of arbitrary nation-states that began in 1920.]

Obvious correlation: Through history, most revolutions have been triggered by a fast rise in food prices, forcing people to choose between starvation and revolution.
Bugsy's Weimar manipulations haven't triggered a revolt within America because food is a small part of most American budgets, but the globally based speculators have forced food prices to spiral everywhere in the world.

Lilico isn't the first to spot this correlation, but I especially appreciate his use of graphs instead of formulas, and his emphasis on the rapid rise of prices. He understands that humans are high-pass filters, responding solely to the size of the delta. Many economists don't grasp this fact.
 


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