Sunday, September 05, 2010
Drinkers live longer?
News has been focusing today on a "study" supposedly showing that heavy drinkers live longer than abstainers.
Decidedly counterintuitive. My impression from friends and ancestors is that drinking will cut you down early, while smoking will take about 5 years off your expected lifespan.
The problem with this study is explicit in the description, but it's subtle. I didn't see it until it was pointed out by one of the commenters at the original Time article.
Problem: The selected population began with men 55-65 who were generally healthy. In other words, the drinkers in this group had already made it past the age where alcohol generally kills you, if it's going to. These participants were among the select genetic group that can tolerate large doses of alcohol.
My relatives and acquaintances who died of drinking all went before 55. They wouldn't have made it into this study.
So the study may well be valid for men who belong to the select group (who I suspect have names like O'Halloran and McGee) but it misses the most important fact about heavy drinking vs other habits, thus fails to give useful advice to younger folks.
The headlines from this research will encourage you to drink heavily, but the effect shown by the research won't help you unless you already have the right genes. And by the time you answer that question, it may be too late. ¶ 2:46 PM
Decidedly counterintuitive. My impression from friends and ancestors is that drinking will cut you down early, while smoking will take about 5 years off your expected lifespan.
The problem with this study is explicit in the description, but it's subtle. I didn't see it until it was pointed out by one of the commenters at the original Time article.
Problem: The selected population began with men 55-65 who were generally healthy. In other words, the drinkers in this group had already made it past the age where alcohol generally kills you, if it's going to. These participants were among the select genetic group that can tolerate large doses of alcohol.
My relatives and acquaintances who died of drinking all went before 55. They wouldn't have made it into this study.
So the study may well be valid for men who belong to the select group (who I suspect have names like O'Halloran and McGee) but it misses the most important fact about heavy drinking vs other habits, thus fails to give useful advice to younger folks.
The headlines from this research will encourage you to drink heavily, but the effect shown by the research won't help you unless you already have the right genes. And by the time you answer that question, it may be too late. ¶ 2:46 PM
