Saturday, July 08, 2006
Weird logic
In discussing North Korea, the various experts keep saying that we must not collapse Kim's regime because China will then have to deal with millions of refugees.
I haven't heard anyone question this bizarre conflation of illogic.
First, in a war our job is not to please the enemy. Our job is to displease the enemy. If millions of refugees will displease China, then we should give China millions of refugees.
Second, I doubt that it would be all that bad for China. After all, we are handling millions of illegal immigrants from Mexico and Central America. We don't like it much, and we're trying to reverse the trend, but it hasn't killed us. China has about 4 times our population, so its burden from 5 million NoKo refugees would be about 1/8 of our burden from 10 million Mexicans.
Third, any Kissingerian argument based on "stability" as the ultimate goal should be immediately ruled out of court. During the First Ford Administration, the argument was a reasonable hypothesis, but it's been tested for 30 years and proved invalid.
We have the data now. "Stability" kept the Soviet Union running long after it had no foundation. "Stability" kept Saddam in power. "Stability" led to the conditions in Yemen, Egypt, and Arabia that triggered Osama. "Stability" is forcing the three parts of Iraq to remain together, which will only lead to a return of Saddam if not something worse.
It's better to let mutually opposed cultures and races find their own locations, even if that means a period of messy displacement. ¶ 12:29 PM
I haven't heard anyone question this bizarre conflation of illogic.
First, in a war our job is not to please the enemy. Our job is to displease the enemy. If millions of refugees will displease China, then we should give China millions of refugees.
Second, I doubt that it would be all that bad for China. After all, we are handling millions of illegal immigrants from Mexico and Central America. We don't like it much, and we're trying to reverse the trend, but it hasn't killed us. China has about 4 times our population, so its burden from 5 million NoKo refugees would be about 1/8 of our burden from 10 million Mexicans.
Third, any Kissingerian argument based on "stability" as the ultimate goal should be immediately ruled out of court. During the First Ford Administration, the argument was a reasonable hypothesis, but it's been tested for 30 years and proved invalid.
We have the data now. "Stability" kept the Soviet Union running long after it had no foundation. "Stability" kept Saddam in power. "Stability" led to the conditions in Yemen, Egypt, and Arabia that triggered Osama. "Stability" is forcing the three parts of Iraq to remain together, which will only lead to a return of Saddam if not something worse.
It's better to let mutually opposed cultures and races find their own locations, even if that means a period of messy displacement. ¶ 12:29 PM
