If the ingredients of a reward, a significant achievement, an interested audience, and at least one participant are taken as the criteria for a race, then there most certainly is a space race, since we have at least one highly demonstrative participant, the Russians, and we have ample evidence of the achievements, rewards, and interest to the audience.

Let us then consider the race from the point of view of the Communist government and society of the USSR. The Russian Communists have certain over-all objectives. They want a strong Russian Communist society. They want to expand their sphere of influence. And they want an increasingly favorable economic situation for Russia; i.e., they wish a higher standard of living, greater productivity, and a favorable world market, which will permit them, in capitalistic terms, to make a profit.

Some of the prizes can be valued in cold cash. The Russians probably spent on the order of 500 million dollars in order to launch the first several Sputniks. As a direct result of these launchings, Russian technical prestige took a large discrete jump upwards in the world market.

Making a highly conservative guess of the cash value of this jump, based upon the size of the world market and the size of various governmental expenditures, the first several Sputniks meant a return on the world market on the order of five billion dollars. Therefore, by spending five hundred million dollars the Russians got back about ten times that amount.

Suppose that you were a civil servant in South America or Asia and you were responsible for choosing a contractor to build a bridge. Because your own country has no bridge-building contractors, you must look to other countries of the world. Before Sputnik you would probably consider obtaining your bridge from the United States, the United Kingdom, or perhaps, West Germany. It is unlikely that you would consider a Russian contractor too seriously. After Sputnik, the countries that come to mind are now Russia and the United States.

Such an achievement is an enormous boost to nationalism and patriotism, and the Russian Communists have succeeded in adding this asset of patriotism to support for Russian Communism. The Russian Communist government is now in far better standing with the Russian people: this is evidenced by at least two facts. The first fact is that the absolute dictator of Russia could afford to be out of his country for a period of three months.

Secondly, we no longer hear the assertion that "if we could only reach the Russian people directly, they would overthrow the regime." Such talk no longer seems realistic.

The real surprise is that the expected prize of all this space activity was supposed to be science and discovery and yet this prize seems to come last on the list. Until very recently, the Russians had not made any astonishing scientific discoveries and it almost appeared as if the United States held the monopoly. Unfortunately, that U.S. monopoly no longer exists and the Russians have made important scientific discoveries which are recognized as such throughout the world. The Russians have told us that the moon has no magnetic field nor does it have any Van Allen belt. It is unlikely that anyone will question this discovery. The Russians have taken a picture of the other side of the moon and have named the various topological features.

Based on this kind of evidence, I think it is fair to conclude that we are in a race. What we may not have realized is that the Russians are in it whether we are in it or not. In a sense, we are so far behind that the Russian competition does not even look back to find out where we are.

Labels: Constants and Variables, defensible times, Natural law = Soviet law

¶ 10:35 AM