Wednesday, March 24, 2021
  More likely anyway

Speaking of forged art and forged threats, here's an interesting bit of scholarship in archeology. The story sounds like the usual scientific forgery. Piltdown Man, Cardiff Giant, etc. Forgeries are especially common in antiquities because provenance is usually unverifiable. The dealer who originally handled this manuscript apparently seemed 'shady' to the buyers he approached.
The text was written in paleo-Hebrew on 16 leather fragments. In 1883, Moses Wilhelm Shapira, an antiquities dealer based in Jerusalem, brought the text to Europe. He showed it to a committee of scholars in Germany, who dismissed it as a fake. Shapira then traveled to Britain where he offered to sell the fragments to the British Museum for 1 million pounds. An expert working for the museum also dismissed it as a forgery, declining the offer. The next year, in 1884, Shapira died by suicide in the Netherlands.
Suicide is usually seen as a mark of regret. A fresh analysis uses philosophy and human nature to invert the picture.
Idan Dershowitz [professor at Univ of Potsdam] says that this text, with its shorter narrative, was written before the Book of Deuteronomy. "Far from being derivative of Deuteronomy, this text is, in fact, Deuteronomy's ancient forebear," Dershowitz wrote in the journal article.

Dershowitz makes numerous arguments to support his contention that the text is authentic. For one, he said that Shapira's own notes show that the antiquities dealer was struggling to understand the text. At the very least, Dershowitz said, this should prove that Shapira didn't fake the document himself.

The papers have "a great number of question marks, marginal musings, and rejected readings; it appears to be a preliminary decipherment. Indeed, Shapira was still in the process of working out the correct order of the inscribed leather fragments. If Shapira was the forger — or one of the forgers — of the manuscripts, why do his private papers include a not-altogether-successful attempt at deciphering them? It would surely be unusual for a forger to labor to understand a text that he himself had devised or inscribed."
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So Shapira suicided from despair, not regret. He made a real discovery and nobody believed him. This is more likely anyway, since professional cheaters don't regret.

Reminds me of something more recent... what was it? ... Oh yes.

THEY KNOW IT'S A HOAX BECAUSE THEY CREATED THE HOAX.

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A quick google finds why the buyers regarded Shapira as shady:
These extraordinary fragments were brought to England by Mr Shapira of Jerusalem, a well-known bookseller and dealer in antiquities. Mr Shapira's name will be remembered in connection with the Moabite pottery in the museum at Berlin, which is now commonly regarded as a modern forgery. The leathern fragments now produced by Mr Shapira were, as he alleges, obtained by him from certain Arabs near Dibon, the neighbourhood where the Moabite stone was discovered. The agent employed by him in their purchase was an Arab "who would steal his mother-in-law for a few piastres", and who would probably be even less scrupulous about a few blackened slips of ancient or modern sheepskin. The value placed by Mr. Shapira on the fragments is, however, a cool million sterling, and at this price they are offered to the British Museum, where they have been temporarily deposited for examination. Dr Ginsburg, the well-known Semitic scholar, is now busily engaged in deciphering the contents of the fragments and examining their genuineness.
This doesn't affect the logic in either direction. True is true and false is false no matter who says it or sells it. In a dubious zone like ancient documents, nobody is ever completely sure unless an actual forger is caught red-handed, or the materials are blatantly modern.

Dershowitz's logic is convincing. Shapira knew he had something real. Maybe he should have lowered the price? A cool million pounds in 1884 was BIG money, about $200 cool million today. Inventors and discoverers are often bullheaded about value. After years of fruitless litigation, they end up broke and dead when they could have been comfortable, and could have used their precious time and effort for more inventing.

The old Vaudeville routine advises us to Pay The Two Dollars. We should also Take The Two Dollars when offered, instead of holding out for $200 million.

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