Monday, March 30, 2020
Most convincing variable
The more rational discussers are focusing properly on CONSTANTS AND VARIABLES. The clearest variable is Japan and Korea, which were closest to China and first to get big doses. Both have avoided holocausting the public, and both have much less death than the countries which are holocausting the public. (Unsurprising in itself; when you don't commit mass murder you have less death.)
Many possible theories are advanced, some of which appear sensible but fail when extended. For instance, Japan and Korea are low-touch cultures, while Italy and Persia are high-touch cultures. This works for those four. BUT Britain is also low-touch, and Mexico is extremely high-touch.
Here's the most convincing theory, found among comments on a Norman Lewis article at Spiked.
And, anyway, as a mathematician I can tell you that even though the stochastic modelling used to determine by our government to determine how easy / difficult it is to do contact tracing are correct in an off themselves, they do not tell us when we should have given up contact tracing for people infected with Covid-19, which by the success that the Asian countries are having with using it to control their outbreakes without smashing the Economy was clearly not as soon as we did.In other words, Japan and Korea used NORMAL PUBLIC HEALTH METHODS, which always include careful tracing of contagion from known spreaders. Britain apparently did very little tracing. In USA we did essentially zero tracing, because our suicidal HIPPA law prevents the use of medical data to help people. We never give the public the names of the spreaders, and we don't even announce the age, race, gender, locations and hangouts of the spreaders. The latter would be sufficient for people who know the spreader, and people in the same hangouts, to call in and get checked. Instead, we mindlessly trust the spreader to remember and specify the people he might have contacted. Japan and Korea also have permanent strict control of borders, which is another basic part of NORMAL PUBLIC HEALTH.
Labels: Constants and Variables
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