Thursday, June 27, 2019
Not so complicated
Via UncommonDescent,
These simple mathematics are tools that Fuentes, in 2009, used to describe another system with an unusual fat-tailed distribution: the stock market. By using superstatistics — an approach from thermodynamics to describe turbulent flow — Fuentes could accurately describe the hard-to-predict dramatic crashes and explosions in value. “In biology, we see these crashes and explosions too, in terms of biodiversity,” says Rominger. “We wondered if Fuentes’ elegant approach could also describe the evolutionary dynamics we see in the fossil record.”You don't need fancy math for either situation. Population booms when food is abundant (easy to find). Stocks bubble when money is abundant (low interest). Population busts when a species uses up the available food. Stocks bust when easy money is used up or turned off. You never need statistics. Never.
Labels: Blinded by Stats
¶ 2:53 PM
