Tuesday, March 26, 2019
Interesting hypothesis
An interesting thought from one of the commenters at NakedCapitalism.
Stephen Walt could probably explain it better but one reason “Russiagate” was amplified is because Saudi Arabia does not want to be the swing producer anymore. This put big targets on Iran, Russia and Venezuela as the new candidate. A swing producer needs to have a threadbare budget to be able to fluctuate production without destabilizing the country. As such, any leader that gives any signs of putting its citizens first will be targeted. The focus on Deripaska was likely an attempt to remove Putin and install some libertarian crime boss oligarchs in Russia. Similiar to the recent attack on Maduro and the GOP wanting to install a terrorist death cult in Iran. The GOP, Dems, Europe and China all have a different preference as to who the loser oil producer is going to be in this game of musical chairs so that has created chaos in foreign policy.Interesting because it doesn't fit the standard talking points of "both" "sides". It's based on plain observed reality, not ideology. In other words, it has the same flavor as Machiavelli or Parkinson. This helps to explain the odd ambiguity toward Saudi since MBS took over. The Khashoggi affair didn't make sense. Why would we make so much noise about ONE killing of a Saudi citizen, when we REWARDED Saudi for killing 3000 of OUR citizens on 9/11? By this theory we're trying to blackmail Saudi back into its previous 'swing supplier' role, without doing anything drastic that would firmly force them into the Russian sphere. At the moment this hypothesis doesn't strike me as definitely true, but it's worth holding and comparing with future evidence.
Labels: Asked and worth asking again
¶ 2:31 PM
