Well, at least we know it's real
Amid all the utter and absolute frauds and symbolic nonsense, occasionally you get a bright indication that an entity or institution is REAL. We have such a sharp sign about ISIS.

What's the indication? US "intel" agencies were completely blindsided by ISIS. They didn't know it was there until it started taking entire cities.

This tells us with dead certainty that ISIS is NOT a sting. It's the first "terrorist" group in 30 years that is NOT a sting.

Why so certain? Easy. US "intel" agencies are only able to predict things that they own. Their record on spotting REAL trends or entities is exactly zero. We knew a lot about Sheikh Osama and his forces because he was always a branch of CIA. We knew a lot about many of the "lone-wolf" terrorists because they were direct products of FBI stings.

This type of "intel" is nicely guaranteed.

For instance: If I had a Household Intelligence Agency, my HIA could predict with 100% certainty that someone would be running laundry in the Household this morning. How would it know? Because I'm the only Someone in the Household, and I'm running laundry right now. HIA could also predict with 99% certainty that someone will be doing programming work on courseware at some point in the day. HIA could predict with 98% certainty that someone will walk to Safeway tomorrow morning.

When the "intel" and the "threat" are the same entity, prediction is neat and clean. And when the "intel" is totally devoted to CREATING CRIMES, it has very little need to predict the actions of real outside threats.

Is there any real outside threat? Probably not. Not unless "our" agencies bring it in.

Update a week later after seeing a bigger picture: Nope, my assumption was wrong. The intel agencies were not surprised; they pretended surprise for plausible deniability. It's obvious now that ISIS is simply taking over the contract from al-Qaeda. We had hired Sheikh Osama to create disorder in the countries around Israel, and to give Islam the appearance of a ferocious enemy. When he got old and sedate, we knocked him off and built a superior replacement.
  ¶ 2:24 AM