Constants and variables 9
Ukraine is boiling and burning. Protesters stupidly want to align with EU, a failing monster that currently creates more pain than gain for ordinary people. Ukraine's government wants to align with Russia, a successful monster that currently creates more gain than pain for ordinary people. Those tendencies could change at any time, but at this moment Russia is the superior choice.

Now the EU jumps into the fray, exhibiting its usual abysmal stupidity. Its representatives are looking at the situation in Kiyiv and proposing sanctions against the Ukraine gov't.

Even the protesters should be able to see the light now.

Think of it in personal terms. You're looking at two job offers. One offer comes from a failing company with a boss you like, who doesn't offer you any special inducements. The other comes from a growing company with a boss you hate, who offers you high wages and a big signup bonus.

Now the boss you like suddenly cuts the offered pay and says he will cuss you and whip you every day as an added inducement.

If you have any sense, your choice is made. Take the unpleasant boss who will pay you instead of whipping you.

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By happenstance, I was listening last night to a 1963 episode of NBC's Monitor, the first long-form news and features program. At that time JFK's sanctions against Cuber were fairly new, and the newscasters (blindly loyal to the Royal Kennedy Family then as now) were cheering Canada's decision to join the sanctions.

What did those sanctions do? Pushed Castro solidly into the Soviet sphere and kept him there for 40 years. Gave the Cubern people a damn good reason to go along with Castro.

North Korea is the same. It was already in China's pocket, and our sanctions locked it in.

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Constants and variables time! We have a fresh example of long-term sanctions that DID work the way they were intended to work. Sanctions against Persia have finally persuaded its government to make a few policy changes to break out of the sanctions.

Okay, sanctions sometimes work, sometimes not. What's the controlling variable? Looks like alignment makes the difference. Cuber already had another boss, and our sanctions pushed Cuber into total loyalty to the Russian boss. Persia didn't have another boss. It has never been a colony, never been a full-fledged client state of either side. It remembers its own days of empire, and uses sophisticated methods to maintain its own freedom of action. Give a little, take a little. The choice wasn't between two bosses but between increased poverty and decreased poverty. Sensibly, it chose decreased poverty.

Labels: Constants and Variables

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