Sunday, January 19, 2014
Extreme because average
NCDC time, boys and girls!
When you look at California's current dry year, it's unquestionably the driest single year on record, but not tremendously worse than a couple of previous peaks.
Taking it apart by month, a more complex picture emerges.
No single month is unprecedented. May through Sept are actually on an uptrend from several low years. But the whole year comes out at a minimum because no month is unusually high. Previous dry-side years had some especially wet months to keep the whole year out of the trough.
Separating by region gets even more complex, but the same general impression holds. The months of this year are low, typical or a little high, but none are abnormally high.
I dare you to find an Evil KKKarbon pattern among these months, i.e. a steady upward or downward trend over the last 30 years. No Evil KKKarbon. Sunspots don't fit either. We're in an especially low sunspot phase, which should let in more cosmic rays, thus more particles to trigger precipitation. Should be wetter than normal if sunspots were the main influence. If there's any long-term pattern at all, it must be merely a converging set of troughs in the various decade-scale oscillations.
No single month is unprecedented. May through Sept are actually on an uptrend from several low years. But the whole year comes out at a minimum because no month is unusually high. Previous dry-side years had some especially wet months to keep the whole year out of the trough.
Separating by region gets even more complex, but the same general impression holds. The months of this year are low, typical or a little high, but none are abnormally high.
I dare you to find an Evil KKKarbon pattern among these months, i.e. a steady upward or downward trend over the last 30 years. No Evil KKKarbon. Sunspots don't fit either. We're in an especially low sunspot phase, which should let in more cosmic rays, thus more particles to trigger precipitation. Should be wetter than normal if sunspots were the main influence. If there's any long-term pattern at all, it must be merely a converging set of troughs in the various decade-scale oscillations.Labels: Carbon Cult
¶ 8:03 AM
