Sunday, September 22, 2013
Haven't done an NCDC in a while
Following up on this thought about the '30s. I was focusing on the idea that the 1930s were not the source of the Dust Bowl or the Depression. Decided to look again at drought patterns. To my eyes, these NCDC time series look somewhat different from what I remember seeing before, but that doesn't mean much.
Here's annual precip for Kansas, Okla, Texas.
Note that the 1930s were on the dry side in Kansas but not in Okla or Texas. The teens and twenties had more dry years and worse dry years.
Note also that the present drought is even less dramatic. Those states are in a dry period, but it doesn't remotely compare with the pre-1957 dry periods. (Looks like Solar Max 1957 caused a mode shift.)
If the current situation is unprecedented, it's NOT the lack of rain that makes it so. It's the temperature. 2012 was a truly unprecedented and sudden peak of temp in all three states, but doesn't appear to be part of a pattern. Even more specifically, it was March 2012 that yanked the annual averages upward. Later months of 2012 were scattered from warm to cool. 2013 is back in normal range.
What made March 2012 so egregiously warm? Presumably an extremely stuck jet stream. Or maybe it was Doktorrrr Evillll KKKarbonnnn conspiring with his associates: "Gentlemen! It has come to my attention that the Western Middle Provinces are producing entirely too much Maize and Cows! We shall demonstrate our powers by creating a total Oven-Like Heat for Exactly One Month! And then we shall hold them ransom for Exactly One Million Dollars! Never underestimate the fiendish intelligence of Doktorrrr Evilllll KKKarbonnnnn!"
Note that the 1930s were on the dry side in Kansas but not in Okla or Texas. The teens and twenties had more dry years and worse dry years.
Note also that the present drought is even less dramatic. Those states are in a dry period, but it doesn't remotely compare with the pre-1957 dry periods. (Looks like Solar Max 1957 caused a mode shift.)
If the current situation is unprecedented, it's NOT the lack of rain that makes it so. It's the temperature. 2012 was a truly unprecedented and sudden peak of temp in all three states, but doesn't appear to be part of a pattern. Even more specifically, it was March 2012 that yanked the annual averages upward. Later months of 2012 were scattered from warm to cool. 2013 is back in normal range.
What made March 2012 so egregiously warm? Presumably an extremely stuck jet stream. Or maybe it was Doktorrrr Evillll KKKarbonnnn conspiring with his associates: "Gentlemen! It has come to my attention that the Western Middle Provinces are producing entirely too much Maize and Cows! We shall demonstrate our powers by creating a total Oven-Like Heat for Exactly One Month! And then we shall hold them ransom for Exactly One Million Dollars! Never underestimate the fiendish intelligence of Doktorrrr Evilllll KKKarbonnnnn!"Labels: Carbon Cult
¶ 4:41 AM
