Thursday, January 05, 2012
No Niña?
There's an interesting disagreement between local National Weather Service forecasters and the federal folks, which may contribute to an improved understanding of the Arctic Oscillation.
Good reporting from Spokesman-Review:
Fox is using common sense, predicting mainly from actual past experience, while the CPC is using theories.
Common sense beats theory every time!
Mostly I'm just goddamn grateful. I was thoroughly prepared this time. Trees gone and roof clean, making it possible to rake the roof completely and efficiently for the first time; new snow shovel; lots of salt. Haven't had to use any of it so far, because the few 2-inch snowfalls have been broom-able.
Note to Weather Gods! I'm NOT COMPLAINING! Lack of snow is JUST FINE BY ME!
When the big snow does hit, whether this year or next, the trees will still be gone and the roof will still be clean and the shovel will still be new. I'll still be ready.
Good reporting from Spokesman-Review:
La Niña was supposed to bring lots of snow this winter, just like it did three of the past four winter seasons. Inland Northwest residents were prepared for the worst based on previous experiences with La Niña since 2007.
But so far, the region has seen less than half its normal snow and less than a quarter of what fell through Jan. 2 a year ago. “The whole West Coast is pretty dry,” said Jon Fox, forecaster with the National Weather Service in Spokane.
What happened?
“There are many more things in play than La Niña,” Fox said of the phenomenon in which the waters in the equatorial Pacific are colder than normal.
At least three other patterns can influence winter weather, including a positive Arctic Oscillation...
The U.S. Climate Prediction Center has maintained its outlook for above-normal precipitation and below-normal temperatures through spring in the Pacific Northwest, largely because of the continuing presence of La Niña.
“They are not giving up on it yet,” Fox said.
In fact, the center’s preseason prediction called for a late onset to winter storms in this region. But Fox and other forecasters in Spokane are doubtful that La Niña is going to bring it on during the second half of winter.
Weather records show that when precipitation is well below normal in the first half of the winter, there is a 66 percent chance it is going to stay relatively dry through spring.
Fox is using common sense, predicting mainly from actual past experience, while the CPC is using theories.
Common sense beats theory every time!
Mostly I'm just goddamn grateful. I was thoroughly prepared this time. Trees gone and roof clean, making it possible to rake the roof completely and efficiently for the first time; new snow shovel; lots of salt. Haven't had to use any of it so far, because the few 2-inch snowfalls have been broom-able.
Note to Weather Gods! I'm NOT COMPLAINING! Lack of snow is JUST FINE BY ME!
When the big snow does hit, whether this year or next, the trees will still be gone and the roof will still be clean and the shovel will still be new. I'll still be ready.
Labels: Carbon Cult
¶ 6:18 PM
