Doesn't answer the main question
News item:Despite having no Internet access in his hideout, Osama bin Laden was a prolific email writer who built a painstaking system that kept him one step ahead of the U.S. government's best eavesdroppers. ... The arrangement allowed bin Laden to stay in touch worldwide without leaving any digital fingerprints behind.
Holed up in his walled compound in northeast Pakistan with no phone or Internet capabilities, bin Laden would type a message on his computer without an Internet connection, then save it using a thumb-sized flash drive. He then passed the flash drive to a trusted courier, who would head for a distant Internet cafe.
In other words, it's a hi-tech version of an old spycraft trick.
But the human element is only a small bit of the process. After the messages got into the web, NSA should have been able to figure out what's happening.
In short, it doesn't matter if the messages originated directly from Osama's house, or from a nearby cafe, and it doesn't matter if the messages were encrypted. The messages were
in the system, and NSA has been Node #1 of the system since 1968. NSA's
traffic analysis should have been able to spot the cafe in Pakistan as the source of all these thousands of messages going to AQ operatives, and from the cafe a little plain old eyeball observation, plus talk with locals, should have distinguished OBL's house.