Tuesday, April 19, 2011
The power of myth
The mythical effects of CO2 on global temperature have been conclusively disproved, so we don't even need to pretend they're worth discussing. But the effect of increased CO2 in the ocean is real and may be a problem we need to deal with.
Article in latest New Superstitionist discusses a potential problem with coral, but as always discards science and adopts myth.
Okay up to here. We have models based on other corals that seem to indicate a threshold, and we have an observation in this reef that indicates the aragonite is below the threshold. We also have an observation that the corals in this reef are doing fine.
A scientist can only say one thing at this point: My models are wrong. I need to revise the models. Perhaps I need to look again at the other corals to see if their problem was solely the low aragonite, or something else, or a combination.
But what do these people say?
No, it couldn't. You simply can't draw the latter conclusion. If the corals are doing fine, they are doing fine. They aren't trying to fool you. They aren't wearing Clearasil For Coral to disguise their lesions. They're not that smart. The "knife-edge" only exists in your model. It does not exist in the coral.
Jesus. ¶ 6:26 AM
Article in latest New Superstitionist discusses a potential problem with coral, but as always discards science and adopts myth.
Oceans become acidic when they absorb CO2 from the atmosphere. Once dissolved, the gas reacts with carbonate to form bicarbonate, stripping seawater of the compound that many organisms (coral, shrimp, crabs) need to build their shells or skeletons.
Bronte Tilbrook of CSIRO ... measured the concentration of aragonite (calcium carbonate) ... at over 200 locations on an Australian reef. Models suggest that if seawater becomes too low in aragonite, organisms with aragonite shells will dissolve. Studies in the Red Sea have found that some species of coral start to dissolve at an aragonite concentration of 2.8.
Almost every bit of water in this Australian sample was below 3.5. Depite suboptimal conditions, Tilbrook found little evidence that coral had reached a critical point. "They are still growing."
Okay up to here. We have models based on other corals that seem to indicate a threshold, and we have an observation in this reef that indicates the aragonite is below the threshold. We also have an observation that the corals in this reef are doing fine.
A scientist can only say one thing at this point: My models are wrong. I need to revise the models. Perhaps I need to look again at the other corals to see if their problem was solely the low aragonite, or something else, or a combination.
But what do these people say?
This could either mean that corals are more resilient than we thought, or it could mean that the corals are on a knife-edge of survival.
No, it couldn't. You simply can't draw the latter conclusion. If the corals are doing fine, they are doing fine. They aren't trying to fool you. They aren't wearing Clearasil For Coral to disguise their lesions. They're not that smart. The "knife-edge" only exists in your model. It does not exist in the coral.
Jesus. ¶ 6:26 AM
