Tuesday, February 22, 2011
Refreshingly real science
Heard a brief news item about this on local NPR. First thought was "Oh boy, here we go again, another climate catastrophe attributed to human SINS AND INIQUITIES, another stupid linear extrapolation into sheer nonsense."
Nope, this time I was wrong!
Actual science making actual and useful predictions:
It's so damn refreshing to see research that starts with facts, takes account of cycles and pays respect to a baseline, instead of the usual process of inventing facts to fit a favorite model!
Now let's see if anyone follows the advice and starts to plan for less waterflow.
Not bloody likely. Nobody wants to follow heresy when Satanist orthodoxy brings so much more money, power and glory. ¶ 7:43 AM
Nope, this time I was wrong!
Actual science making actual and useful predictions:
The researchers analyzed a sediment core from Castor Lake in north central Washington to plot the region's drought history since around 4,000 BCE and found that wet and dry cycles during the past millennium have grown longer. The team attributed this recent deviation to the irregular pressure and temperature changes brought on by El Niño/La Niña. At the same time, they reported, the wet cycle stretching from the 1940s to approximately 2000 was the dampest in 350 years.
Lead researcher Mark Abbott, a Pitt professor of geology and planetary science, said those unusually wet years coincide with the period when western U.S. states developed water-use policies. "Western states happened to build dams and water systems during a period that was unusually wet compared to the past 6,000 years," he said. "Now the cycle has changed and is trending drier, which is actually normal. It will shift back to wet eventually, but probably not to the extremes seen during most of the 20th century."
It's so damn refreshing to see research that starts with facts, takes account of cycles and pays respect to a baseline, instead of the usual process of inventing facts to fit a favorite model!
Now let's see if anyone follows the advice and starts to plan for less waterflow.
Not bloody likely. Nobody wants to follow heresy when Satanist orthodoxy brings so much more money, power and glory. ¶ 7:43 AM
