Friday, July 02, 2010
Didn't check the literature
Science news this week:
First rule of scientific research: Check the literature, see if someone has done the work before.
With a little Googling, I was able to find this earlier study:
[David, King: Psalm 90:10, in Holy Torah. Edited Moses, Abraham, et al. Published Jehovah & Son, Palestine, 5000 BC. ISBN 0000000001.]
= = = = =
More seriously, I strongly doubt the initial statement that only 1/6000 hit the century mark. Among my own close ancestors (parents, g-parents, g-g-parents, total 14 people): one reached 100 and three made it past 90. I'd bet the typical proportion of centenarians in modern countries is more like 1/50 than 1/6000. ¶ 8:16 AM
Only one in 6,000 people reaches the century mark and just one in 7 million lives to be a supercentenarian — someone who is 110 or older. But a new study, published online July 1 in Science, suggests that more people may have the right genetic stuff for extreme longevity.
In the new study, researchers looked at genetic markers called single nucleotide polymorphisms, or SNPs, in 1,055 centenarians and 1,267 younger people, all of European descent. The scientists found 150 genetic SNP variants linked to extreme longevity.
Initially, the team identified only 33 SNPs found more often in people aged 90 to 114 years but not in a control group made up of people who will presumably live an average lifespan. But, says Thomas Perls, ... the researchers felt that they were still missing part of the story. So biostatistician Paola Sebastiani devised a different statistical method to identify additional SNPs that would improve the team’s ability to predict longevity. The team tested their predictions on a separate group of centenarians and controls. With the 150 SNPs, the researchers could correctly predict who was a centenarian 77 percent of the time.
First rule of scientific research: Check the literature, see if someone has done the work before.
With a little Googling, I was able to find this earlier study:
The days of our years are threescore years and ten; and if by reason of strength they be fourscore years....
[David, King: Psalm 90:10, in Holy Torah. Edited Moses, Abraham, et al. Published Jehovah & Son, Palestine, 5000 BC. ISBN 0000000001.]
= = = = =
More seriously, I strongly doubt the initial statement that only 1/6000 hit the century mark. Among my own close ancestors (parents, g-parents, g-g-parents, total 14 people): one reached 100 and three made it past 90. I'd bet the typical proportion of centenarians in modern countries is more like 1/50 than 1/6000. ¶ 8:16 AM
