Two alt-universes
An interesting alt-universe question from a tech venture capitalist type:

HONEST (not sarcastic): I would LOVE to see the counterfactual world—in a parallel universe (from 1971 to today)—where the price of money, “free markets” and all capital allocation was not distorted by handful of academic decision makers.

The question puts all the elements together. Unfortunately the responses didn't seem to understand the subject.

1971 is a huge inflection point for real-value economics. That's when Nixon broke the gold standard and invited China to take over our economy.

What would we look like now? Possibly like Germany, where industry remained in control and grew to fit the times, instead of surrendering to China.

The hypothetical is tricky because other things wouldn't have changed. Germany adjusted its education system to follow the Russian skills-first model. Our ed system at that point still had some skill training, but was rapidly trending toward pure memorized delusions thanks to our idiotic reverse reaction to Sputnik. Would it have turned around to fit the needs of industry? I doubt it.

Also, our offshoring didn't really start in '71, it started in '58. By '71 some corporations had tasted the blood of dead Deplorables and the ecstatic joy of exterminating Negative Externalities. Nixon certainly made the slaughter easier, but it was well under way.

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I'd like to pose an alt-universe question about technology. I've covered the ground before, but never quite asked the question.

The telegraph began as a personal communication device around 1832. Wheatstone and Cooke were developing a system inside London, aiming to serve most households. Dial telegraphs, including Breguet's version shown here, required no special skill or talent. Just turn the crank to the next letter, then turn again, and so on. Other early systems had piano-like keyboards and printed output.




The personal system failed to catch on, for reasons that are unclear from available texts, and I've read most of them! In the rest of Europe and US and Asia, development started with government systems using Morse keys or elaborate printing machines. Service and skill were centralized in storefronts or railroad depots. Britain then followed the trend.



What would the world look like if personal text-based communication, with printed output, had developed steadily since 1832, instead of re-starting in 1987? Telephones and (wired) radio would have happened much sooner, and something like a computer would also have developed faster, in a household setting instead of a giant government setting.

Labels: Alternate universe, Asked and badly answered, Morsenet of Things

  ¶ 4:01 PM